6/3/09

OK Mr. Gates. What Now?

by Eric Margolis

PARIS – One of the first things you learn in diplomacy 101 is not to make threats you can’t back up.

But that is just what US Defense Secretary Robert Gates did last week by thundering the US "would not accept," and "would not stand idly by" while North Korea continued to develop nuclear weapons.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons threaten the entire globe, warned Gates, whose own Pentagon has some 10,000 nuclear warheads deployed at home and abroad, 28,500 troops permanently based in South Korea, and large contingents in Japan, Okinawa and Guam.

Not to be out-threatened, North Korea warned back that if attacked, it would turn South Korea’s capitol, Seoul, into "a sea of fire" and bombard Japan.

Dire threats and angry hot air always characterize poisonous relations between isolated, Stalinist North Korea and the US, Japan and South Korea. Their recriminations have become a form of ritualized kabuki theater in which snarls and grimaces replace actual violence.

After much angry posturing, the US, Japan and South Korea usually pay off North Korea’s "Dear Leader," Kim Jong-il, to stop making trouble.
But this time, both Washington and Pyongyang have gone over the top. One wonders how Secretary Gates intends to prevent North Korea from having the nuclear devices it already possesses.

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dear punditman says...North Korea’s "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il and his nukes do not yet threaten the globe. They are not yet ready to be delivered by missile, it is believed. That's the good news. Now the bad news. A conventional war sees North Korea causing much grief for South Korea and the US troops stationed there who are currently on high alert. If things spiral out of control, Japan and South Korea may be forced to go nuclear, which apparently both can do quickly. Wonderful.

The US is threatening a maritime blockade that would see them searching North Korean freighters on the high seas for "weapons of mass destruction." This is an act of war and foolish daredevilry. It is not a cogent response. What is Obama's plan? The US can ill afford another military engagement, and an air campaign against North Korea would likely be inconclusive.

So, dear reader, a major war on the Korean Peninsula with "Dear Leader" is a real possibility. If that happens, no one will be talking about transforming General Motors. Imagine the price of gas. Dear me.