This essay was written by Michael W. Foley (TOD user greenuprising), a former professor in the social sciences at an eastern U.S. university who I now know as a local farmer. At a recent Farmers' Market, I suggested that we needed a more empirical and scholarly discussion of the potential for social breakdown, especially violence, during energy descent. Thankfully, he agreed to write the following for The Oil Drum.
A sizable subset of what some on this site call “doomers” are convinced that the demise of the petroleum economy will bring social breakdown and a violent struggle of all against all. Some are even preparing for the chaos to come. I'm convinced we have to take end-of-affluence scenarios, including the scarier ones, seriously. But it can help everyone confront these possibilities if we try to think more intricately about how people might respond. In particular, we need to face head-on the question whether social breakdown and violence are inevitable.
The concerns I'm adddressing here are pretty U.S.-centric, though I'm drawing on examples from around the world. Images of marauding bands sacking grocery stores and small farms and of neighbors guarding their hoards with shotguns mainly come out of the American imagination, I suspect. In places like Western Europe and Latin America, with old traditions of militant social organization, acute shortages might bring people out into the streets all right, even entailing looting and such (remember the Latin American “food riots” of the 70's and 80's?), but crystallizing pretty quickly into organized efforts to get governments to respond. But I'll try to suggest some conclusions that might have broader relevance than the U.S.
Readers know that Peacenik sometimes succumbs to the arguments of "doomers". Some readers think Peacenik himself is a doomer. This article addresses the very issue that Peacenik has contemplated and posted on. Will the future be Mad Max like, or will it be more like the Great Depression with very little violence and some social cohesion? Jason Bradford makes an interesting case. Although his arguement that historical violence was frequently stirred up by politicians playing the ethnic card doesn't give Peacenik much comfort. Consider all the kooks that just ran for President in the U.S. McCain, a major candidate for President stirred up hate and fear of Obama. Will politicians stir up trouble in a bankrupt, depression- like U.S. What about all the kooks in the Canadian parliament. Peacenik fears we are doomed.
