Why Are Long-Term Rates Going Up? Maybe Lenders Think We're Screwed

Henry Blodget|May. 25, 2009, 9:48 AM

The whole world is deflating, but long-term interest rates are moving up. (See the chart for the 10-yr Treasury at right). Why?

Tim Geithner thinks it's because traders are recognizing that the economy's beginning to recover

That's one happy theory. And it's possible (fingers crossed). But here are two less-happy theories:

Read on...

Peacenik has been browsing the news this morning. In the Globe and Mail there is a story about Flaherty not revealing the extent of the federal deficit. WTF? Peacenik guesses it must be big. And in Haaretz, Netanyahu is threatening Iran again. Yawn. Should Peacenik yawn at this threat? GM is on the verge of bankruptcy. Who cares? Standard and Poor's just warned Britain about downgrading Britain's credit rating. So what? Foreclosures in the U.S.A continues at a record pace.....zzzzzzzzzzzz . There are lots of stories about the growing threat of inflation. Boring. And the yield on 10-year U.S treasuries jumped 33 basis points in the past week. What dat? Obama said the U.S. was out of money. Who isn't?

Is there a trend in all this news? Peacenik doesn't see one. But Peacenik senses something. Something disquieting. Bad news is losing its punch. The sheeple are becoming inured to bad news. Society no longer seems to distinguish between good news and bad news. The stock market is just as apt to rise on bad news as on good news. Tons of really bad news is just ignored. Peacenik wonders why this is so. Peacenik wonders if this is bad. Bad news is losing its impact. That is bad news. Very bad news...I think.

The Coming Siege of Austerity

by Jim Kunstler

It's a curious symptom of the consensus trance zombifying the American public and its auditors in the media that something like a "recovery" is now deemed to be underway. And, as events compel me to repeat in this space, it begs the question: recovery to what? To Wall Street booking stupendous profits by laundering "risk" out of bad loans with new issues of tranche-o-matic securitized paper? This I doubt, since there isn't a pension fund left from San Jose to Bratislava that would touch this stuff with a stick, even if it could be turned out in collector's editions of boxed sets. Does it mean that American "consumers" (so-called) are awaited momentarily in the flat-screen TV sales parlors with their credit cards fanned-out like poker hands, ready for "action?" Not too likely with massive non-performance out in cardholder-land, and half the nation's electronics inventory wending its way onto Craig's List. Are we expecting more asteroid belts of new suburbs carved in the loamy outlands of Dallas and Minneapolis, complete with new highway strips of Big Box shopping and Chuck E. Cheeses? Go to banking's intensive care unit and inquire (if you can) among the flat-lining production home-builders and the real estate investment trusts on life support when they expect to rev up the heavy equipment.

Read on...

Yesterday Peacenik read that the Stratford Festival was putting 30 performance dates on hold. This morning, former Mike Harris acolyte and now Canada's Industry Minister, Tony Clement, is warning the CAW to make more concessions. Also this morning, General Growth Properties, the largest mall owner in the U.S., declared bankruptcy. Conquest Vacations went out of business yesterday. Intrawest is being forced to sell Mont Tremblant. Housing starts in the U.S. are near a record low. The Habs are for sale. A closer examination of Goldman Sachs stated first quarter profit shows that maybe the profit was just some accounting trickery.

Peacenik doesn't think things are getting better. Jim Kunstler doesn't think things are getting better. Do you?