Showing posts with label economic doom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic doom. Show all posts

5/16/09

Doomsday....times two.

May 15, 2009: White Hot Air

Ilargi: Today's a pivotal day, the entire system has started to visibly tumble in on itself, and it unfortunately takes me more time than I have right now to detail it. There's always tomorrow. But the evidence still doesn't lie.

Exchanges can rally all they want. When you see that "US prices fall most since 1955", you’re looking at something that could change rather quickly. Once you get to "US production capacity utilization lowest since records began in 1967", that is not the case. There's a lot more inertia in capacity utilization. Detroit runs at 42% of capacity, and all economic numbers except for those blurting out of Wall Street and Washington indicate that even that is nowhere near a bottom relative to actual sales.

Read on...

Disbelief Revisited Once Again

The U.S. is, in the best case scenario, entering an economic depression that will be far worse than both the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Panic of 1873. At worst, the USA will collapse altogether. I now think that the situation is actually, amazingly, worse than even this! I believe that our government is on total tilt; they have pushed trillions into the pot, and they feel now like there's no way they can fold the hand. They will, as such, print and spend TENS of TRILLIONS more in an effort to stave off depression. And in doing so they will destroy the nation.

Read on...


Peacenik says do not read these two posts if you are depressed, suffer from anxiety, have a lot of debt, feel nervous about the future, or have any neurosis of any type. Ilargi has virtually called the end of the world....doomsday. And Dan W. provides an eye-popping summary of why it is so. Is the world economy in its final death spiral? Will a growth economy miraculously re-appear? Will the bailouts suddenly start working? When the only engine of the economy is government debt the end is nigh. The U.S. is going to hire 1.3 million people to work on the 2010 census. This will distort future employment figures. But when that is the only good data point in the U.S. economy, it is hopeless. Is the economy in a death spiral? Ilargi thinks so. Dan W. thinks so. Peacenik thinks............and thinks............and thinks.

3/26/09

Economic Quagmire: What does Punditman think?

punditman says...

For months now, there has been much chatter around here about complete economic collapse, especially since the misnamed Peacenik arrived and started gathering up prognostications from the best of the online doomers and peak oilers. Though he started his Punditman career by posting about a possible US attack on Iran along with the ongoing quagmires in Afghanistan, Iraq etc., Punditman wonders if this was simply a means of infiltrating the content side of this blog, because it is clear where Peacenik's priorities lie: He is a "Peacenik" in a class warfare/survivalist sort of way (whatever does that mean?).

Still, Punditman does not blame Peacenik for closely monitoring the largest economic downturn in 80 years, in fact he is thankful to have such a razor sharp doomer analyst on board. He just wishes he would change his moniker.

That aside, what exactly does Punditman think about all this talk of economic collapse?

Punditman believes that "doomsday" is a relative concept. It depends on the country, the region, the sector, the business and ultimately the individual.

For instance, in the underdeveloped world, doomsday has been the norm for decades. Ditto for war zones. Suddenly a little karmic discomfort in the First World and everyone is screaming that the sky is falling.

Okay, so things are bad enough. But how bad can/will this crisis get? Well, I just got an email from a friend out West who said his wine class sales are booming. "Things are crazy busy," says he. Seems one person's doom is another person's dollar.

On the other hand, if you lose your job, your house, your business, your
wine collection, well then it's certainly doomsday for you. Punditman wishes he had a fine Merlot collection to lose.

Anyway, doomsday estimations are dependent on how stupid the estimator thinks politicians who are beholding to entrenched interests have become. Granted, they appear pretty clueless lately. Peacenik apparently thinks they are really stupid and will let the whole house of cards collapse all around them and do nothing to save their political hides or the actual hides of their rich business friends (especially if they live in France), as hordes of pitchfork wielding peasants and workers storm the corridors of power. Thus Peacenik is forming his own militia, just in case.

On the other hand, Punditman thinks that the powers that be fear the above scenario more than anything and that even their greed and ignorance is not as great as their fear of revolt.

Maybe.

With the past as our guide, we know that elites do not give away power willingly, nor, in a touch of great historic irony, do they change direction even when the train is seemingly headed off the tracks---unless there is concerted pressure from below that addresses the needs and demands of the common folk.

If you want, you can call that hope. Hopefully a guy named "Peacenik" has similar hopes.

3/9/09

Buffett: Economy "has fallen off a cliff."

by CalculatedRisk on 3/09/2009 08:51:00 AM

Warren Buffett is on CNBC this morning ...

From the CNBC live blog, a few Buffett comments:

6:05a: Economy is "close to the worst case." Can't imagine it being much worse ... The economy "has fallen off a cliff."

Read on...

Peacenik thinks this will spook the markets. Big Time. The ticking of the Doomsday Clock is getting louder and louder. Peacenik is going to the ATM on Peacenik's coffee break and getting some CASH out of the bank. Peacenik hopes Peacenik is not too late. When the collapse happens, if it happens, it will be fast. When you hear on the news that there is a run on the bank.....it is too late. Tick. Tick. Tick.

3/6/09

What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)

Posted by Karl Denninger in Editorial at 09:57

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.

Read on...

Peacenik really wanted to post something upbeat for a Friday. Like Peacenik always does. Maybe Peacenik will find something upbeat later in the day. Maybe the world financial markets won't go boom before noon. Maybe Peacenik has just been dreaming and the world's financial system has not been imploding before Peacenik's eyes. Denninger sounds an alarm in this post. This is what is at stake. Everything. Everything. Have a good weekend.

3/3/09

Beginning Now: The Panic Phase of the Collapse

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 03-02-09

If you missed our latest video, “The 11 Laws of Bear Market Success,” or you want to watch it again, click here now for the recording.
The timing couldn’t be better. Indeed …

Just as the Obama Administration launches a triple tirade of new initiatives — a record stimulus package, a bigger round of rescues, and the largest deficit financing of all time …

Just as the Treasury Department doubles down on its bailouts for sinking giants — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, General Motors, Chrysler, and Citigroup …

Peacenik watched CNBC when he got home from work yesterday. Peacenik could see the panic in the faces of the pundits and their guests. Jim Cramer was sorrowful. Even Larry Kudlow was having a hard time pretending to be optimistic. But the crazy thing was that everyone was blaming Obama. It was like 30 years of neo-conservative malfeasance didn't happen. Peacenik isn't sure why such unbalanced, unfair and dishonest TV coverage is allowed. It was a 3-hour commerical for neo-con wingnuts.

Peacenik thinks maybe it is time to bring back the "fairness" doctrine. Peacenik thinks it is time for a whole new crop of pundits. Oh, and this morning: Toyota needs a bailout. And GE had to cut its dividend. And pension plans are crashing. Will the markets bounce back today? If investors read and believe the front page of the Globe and Mail today, "It's Not All Dooom and Gloom", then the market might rebound. Peacenik doesn't believe the front page of the Globe and Mail.

1/24/09

Downturn Accelerates As It Circles The Globe

Economies Worse Off Than Predicted Just Weeks Ago

By Anthony FaiolaWashington Post Staff Writer Saturday, January 24, 2009; Page A01

The world economy is deteriorating more quickly than leading economists predicted only weeks ago, with Britain yesterday becoming the latest nation to surprise analysts with the depth of its economic pain.

Britain posted its worst quarterly contraction since 1980 on the heels of sharper than expected slowdowns reported from Germany to China to South Korea. The grim data, analysts said, underscores how the burst of the biggest credit bubble in history is seeping into the real economies around the world, silencing construction cranes, bankrupting businesses and throwing millions of people out of work.

Read on...

Usually Peacenik takes the weekends off from blogging. But given the dire situation, Peacenik is worried the Internet may not exist on Monday. Goofball optimist, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada, and a great Canadian, says the downturn will end in the second half of 2009. No worries. Meanwhile, Obama is holding emergency meetings this weekend just to nurse the world economy to last till Monday. Why would the Internet end? It is designed to withstand global thermal nuclear war. Peacenik thinks the public is one step away from grabbing their pitchforks and hitting the streets. Whoever controls the information controls the world. They will shut it down. And it will end badly. Who is "They"? What is "it"? Peacenik doesn't know.

Unprecedented Crisis In US, UK, Australia, Europe

Today was like most any day in recent memory: Another day, Another day of grim news.

In the US, President Obama is struggling to cope with an "unprecedented crisis", regulators closed Centennial Bank in California, Freddie Mac is asking for more cash, and 30 year bonds are getting shellacked.

Overseas, French and Flemish governments are intervening in the markets, the UK is shrinking at the fastest pace since 1980, and Australia needs action to save jobs. Rounding up the grim news, 1.2 million corporate networks have become infected with worms that attack Microsoft Corp.’s Windows operating system.

Here are the grim details.

Read on...

Peacenik just received an email from one of his regular correspondents reporting anecdotally that all was well with the local economy: mall busy, store shelves full, pubs packed, people happy. Then Peacenik went to Mish's website to read his overview of the "unprecedented crisis". How does Peacenik reconcile the two different points of view? Peacenik is reminded that institutions and individuals frequently engage in profligate behaviour just before they explode. Thus, Thain, the Wall St. CEO redecorated his office the week before he was fired. Penniless hobos will find six dollars on the street and buy a pint of beer rather than a bag of rice. Peacenik thinks Mish and his correspondent are telling the same story. There will be denial and the illusion of prosperity. Then it will end.

11/13/08

Two signs that something is seriously wrong

by gjohnsit

Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 12:50:56 PM PST

Every once in a while in the world of economics an economic indicator will suddenly go crazy. One day the charts all look normal and easy to understand. The next day it suddenly launches into an entirely different world.

What a massive swing in the index means is always open to interpretation (a whole industry exists to analyze these movements), and no one is certain if they are correct until years afterward. Sometimes what it means is more obvious than the why, but the 'why' is ultimately more important.

The Baltic Dry Index dates back to 1744. To put it roughly, it is the price of moving raw materials by sea.
.
Peacenik suspects that people sitting around the campfire in new Hoovervilles will be talking about the Baltic Dry Index as one of the earliest harbingers of economic doom. And today the Globe and Mail reports that Canadian banks are getting an increase in the same type of government support that the U.S. banks are getting. This is the same Canadian banking system that we were recently told was one of the strongest in the world. Gjohnsit says the second harbinger of economic doom he sees predicts hyperinflation. But the price of gold is not going through the roof...yet. Peacenik is paralyzed as Peacenik continues to contemplate inflation/deflation scenarios.

11/10/08

Presto Change-o

by Jim Kunstler

As the election campaign ground on like a 3000-mile race between a greyhound and an armadillo, the media kept harping on Barack Obama's vague promises of "change." We now know what the main promise was: regime change, right here in the USA, not in some place where the natives wear strange headgear. Mr. Obama's victory was a moment of epochal exhilaration, not least because he appears to be a decent and intelligent person self-made from a humble background -- someone who has personally bought tube socks in the K-mart, worried about money, and made many trips in a subway car.

The current occupant of the White House, however, has sedulously prepared for his successor the biggest shit sandwich the world has ever seen, and there is naturally some concern that Mr. Obama might choke on it. The dilemma is essentially this: the consumer economy we all knew and loved has died. There will be pressure from nearly every quarter to keep it hooked up to the costly life support machines even though it is dead. A different economy is waiting to be born, but it is nothing like the one that has died. The economy-to-come is one of rigor and austerity. It is not the kind of thing that a nation of overfed clowns is used to. Do we even have a prayer of getting to it, or are we going to squander our dwindling resources on life support for something that is already dead?

Peacenik wonders how long before the public seriously wakes up to the enormity of the financial/industrial crisis sweeping the globe. China is shuttering factories at a breakneck pace. 130,000 people a day are departing the city of Guhanzhou in China. Many of them newly unemployed. In North America the question isn't how to try and save the automotive industry, the question is whether it is worth saving. AIG needs another huge bailout. Kunstler of course wraps it all up in today's post. And the Bush wrecking machine still has two months left to continue wrecking.

11/5/08

Debt Rattle, November 4, 2008: There Ain't no Cure

Ilargi: Yeah, stock exchanges are edging higher, how could they not? There's hope in the air, there'll be a new "leader of the free world" [sic bleeding sic] early tomorrow morning. And people everywhere, from Wall Street to Spent Soiled Syringe Alley, are so desperate for a sign of redemption that it would take some major disaster to get them to face reality today. And who am I to rain on their parades?

Obama will be elected the next president of the US, a country that was once the greatest nation on earth, and has now descended into depths from which it will never recover nor return. And if for some reason Obama loses, we will face, as early as midnight tonight, the worst domestic American violence in 145 years. Not something to look forward to.

Ok, Peacenik was still savoring the Obama victory, when Peacenik read Ilargi. This is some serious piece of financial doomsday writing. Not recommended for the faint of heart. Everybody knows that the world's banks are bankrupt. Everybody knows that the North American auto industry is bankrupt. Everybody know that insurance companies and pension funds are full of worthless assests that everyone pretends are worth something. On the other hand Peacenik walked through Toronto's entertainment district on Peacenik's lunch hour. Everybody looked happy. The restaurants were full. No sense of doom. Ilargi, Obama. Ilargi, Obama. Obama, Ilargi. Peacenik is all mixed up.