Why the epidemiology of swine flu matters

Peacenik knows Punditman is sick and tired of posting about swine flu and vaccines. But Peacenik isn't. Peacenik doesn't know if the authors of the article Punditman posted are quacks or not. There is lots of bad science available to support any argument. George bush just based 8 years of his presidency on bad science. And unfortunately bad science is so entrenched in today's society that it truly is difficult to make informed decisions about some topics.

Companies obviously have agendas. As do agencies, NGO's, lobbyists, the media and bloggers. Revere at Effect Measure seems to Peacenik to be someone who is trustworthy. Reading the comments to this post by Revere though does get into the question of adjuvants being added to vaccines. This makes Peacenik queasy. And this all may be academic in any case. In Canada the vaccine may not be available in time to make a difference. Peacenik will not be at the front of the line in any case if and when vaccine becomes available. Pregnant women and children first. Bad side effects will probably be known before cowardly Peacenik does or does not line up. Will Peacenik get the shot? Will Snowman? Will Punditamn? Will Taxiguy? Will JohnnyAnon? Will Humphrey the Hippie? Will Puttyman? Will Don Cherry?

Posted on: October 11, 2009 2:00 PM, by revere

If you are hesitating to be vaccinated for swine flu this year, perhaps this post will help you make up your mind. If it does, I hope it pushes you to get vaccinated, but whatever persuasion we attempt here will only be from a recital of what we know of the epidemiology of this pandemic. Because it is the different epidemiology that is the main feature, not the clinical characteristics or the virulence of the virus. So far this looks pretty much like a standard influenza A virus -- except for the epidemiology. Since I'm an epidemiologist, you might expect me to think this is important, and I do. Epidemiology is the public health science that studies the patterns of illness in populations. One kind of pattern we study is who is getting sick. And it is a change in this pattern that is one of the big differences between a pandemic strain and a seasonal strain.

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No need to change vaccine policy based on Canadian flu shot data: WHO

So lets see if Peacenik has this straight. The international medical community discounts Canadian research that says if you have had a seasonal flu shot in the past, you are more susceptible to getting the swine flu.

But many Canadian jurisdictions, including Ontario, where Peacenik lives, are delaying giving seasonal flu shots until they have finished giving the swine flu shots. Keeping in mind that the swine flu vaccine is still not available, and the swine flu pandemic is simultaneously worsening in Ontario.

And Peacnik still doesn't know if the Ontario vaccine will use adjuvants in the vaccine. The U.S. will not. The U.K. will. Peacenik thinks that by the time there is an available flu shot for Peacenik, that Peacenik will shrug, roll up Peacenik's sleve, and get the shot.

By Helen Branswell Medical Reporter (CP) –

TORONTO — International influenza vaccine experts are apparently not convinced that Canadian researchers have found a true link between getting a seasonal flu shot and catching swine flu.

The consensus that emerged from a World Health Organization teleconference Friday on the controversial data seemed to be that the Canadian findings are likely due to some confounding factor or factors in the data themselves and may not reflect a real increased risk, according to a WHO official who helped pull together the meeting.

"From a WHO point of view, the fact that the findings are not replicated in other countries I think is reassuring for us that this is an outlier, if you like, the unexpected findings that are coming out of Canada," said David Wood, co-ordinator of the quality, safety and standards team of WHO's department of immunization, vaccines and biologicals.

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Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m'

Anarchy? For some weird reason this word jumps out at Peacenik. Peacenik can't ignore a story that includes anarchy. Peacenik thinks there is lots of anarchy on the way. A perfect storm of anarchy. The projections for the swine flu pandemic are getting scarier and scarier.

This story talks about supplying antiviral drugs, vaccines, etc. to poor countries. Peacenik is not even sure there is going to be enough vaccine even for a supposedly rich country like Canada. When Peacenik reads stories about actual survivors of swine flu, Peacenik is more and more inclined to line up for the vaccine when and if it becomes available. Will the line ups be orderly. Will there be anarchy. Will Don Cherry push his way in front of Peacenik? Peacenik will see.

A woman wears a mask as preventive measure against swine flu, at Sassoon hospital in Pune, India, Aug 11, 2009. Photograph: Dhiraj Singh/AP

UN report says pandemic may result in anarchy unless western world pays for antiviral drugs and vaccines

Rajeev Syal

The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world's poorest nations unless £900m can be raised from rich countries to pay for vaccines and antiviral medicines, says a UN report leaked to the Observer.

The disclosure will provoke concerns that health officials will not be able to stem the growth of the worldwide H1N1 pandemic in developing countries. If the virus takes hold in the poorest nations, millions could die and the economies of fragile countries could be destroyed.

Health ministers around the globe were sent the warning on Thursday in a report on the costs of averting a humanitarian disaster in the next few months. It comes as officials inside the World Health Organisation, the UN's public health body, said they feared they would not be able to raise half that amount because of the global downturn.

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Deadly Immunity

punditman says...
Yep, dear reader, you may have noticed that Peacenik is absent from the blog these past few days. You would be correct. He's off at his summer cottage preparing for whatever it is you prepare for at your summer cottage. Personally I drink beer and prepare for nothing when I am on vacation, but I expect a full report in the near future from Peacenik's survivalist compound. He does have lots of beer, so I assume Peacenik is in a fine mood as he prepares for the end of whatever it is that is ending.

In the meantime, Punditman says that Punditman has noticed yet another article about the dangers of vaccines and yet another Big Pharma/government cover-up. This 2005 article by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shows the depth of collusion between Big Parma and the US government. Punditman thinks this is highly relevant because of the current "debate" on the swine flu virus, plans to develop a vaccine and make you and your loved ones get jabbed either through mandatory vaccinations under emergency powers or through intense social pressure. Yep, that's what I predict at this juncture. Actually, I've noticed that there's no debate at all going on in the mainstream media. All is well in the corporate-media-medical matrix. It's just online wingnuts like me that are raising eyebrows and sounding alarms.

When your views run contrary to accepted wisdom, the usual progression goes something like this: First, skeptics and critics are ignored. That's the pure censorship phase and this is where we are currently with swine flu. Contrary opinion is 100% absent from mainstream discourse. It is sort of how punditman feels when he mentions the 1976 swine flu vaccine fiasco that led to crippling disease and death for thousands and ensuing lawsuits. He gets that "eyes glazed over" look from unaware, frivolous-TV-viewing folk who pass themselves off as thinking monkeys. Then, if we skeptics get louder, we'll be labeled wingnuts. That's the next step. Then, with enough pressure, perhaps the powers that be will listen to our legitimate concerns. I think.

Of course by then it could be too late and the damage could be done, with untold numbers maimed by an unsafe vaccine for a threat that may have originated in a lab.

And of course, punditman could be completly wrong too.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. investigates the government cover-up of a mercury/autism scandal

ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.
(June 20, 2005)

In June 2000, a group of top government scientists and health officials gathered for a meeting at the isolated Simpsonwood conference center in Norcross, Georgia. Convened by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the meeting was held at this Methodist retreat center, nestled in wooded farmland next to the Chattahoochee River, to ensure complete secrecy. The agency had issued no public announcement of the session -- only private invitations to fifty-two attendees. There were high-level officials from the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration, the top vaccine specialist from the World Health Organization in Geneva and representatives of every major vaccine manufacturer, including GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Wyeth and Aventis Pasteur. All of the scientific data under discussion, CDC officials repeatedly reminded the participants, was strictly "embargoed." There would be no making photocopies of documents, no taking papers with them when they left.

The federal officials and industry representatives had assembled to discuss a disturbing new study that raised alarming questions about the safety of a host of common childhood vaccines administered to infants and young children. According to a CDC epidemiologist named Tom Verstraeten, who had analyzed the agency's massive database containing the medical records of 100,000 children, a mercury-based preservative in the vaccines -- thimerosal -- appeared to be responsible for a dramatic increase in autism and a host of other neurological disorders among children. "I was actually stunned by what I saw," Verstraeten told those assembled at Simpsonwood, citing the staggering number of earlier studies that indicate a link between thimerosal and speech delays, attention-deficit disorder, hyperactivity and autism. Since 1991, when the CDC and the FDA had recommended that three additional vaccines laced with the preservative be given to extremely young infants -- in one case, within hours of birth -- the estimated number of cases of autism had increased fifteenfold, from one in every 2,500 children to one in 166 children.

Even for scientists and doctors accustomed to confronting issues of life and death, the findings were frightening. "You can play with this all you want," Dr. Bill Weil, a consultant for the American Academy of Pediatrics, told the group. The results "are statistically significant." Dr. Richard Johnston, an immunologist and pediatrician from the University of Colorado whose grandson had been born early on the morning of the meeting's first day, was even more alarmed. "My gut feeling?" he said. "Forgive this personal comment -- I do not want my grandson to get a thimerosal-containing vaccine until we know better what is going on."

But instead of taking immediate steps to alert the public and rid the vaccine supply of thimerosal, the officials and executives at Simpsonwood spent most of the next two days discussing how to cover up the damaging data. According to transcripts obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, many at the meeting were concerned about how the damaging revelations about thimerosal would affect the vaccine industry's bottom line. "We are in a bad position from the standpoint of defending any lawsuits," said Dr. Robert Brent, a pediatrician at the Alfred I. duPont Hospital for Children in Delaware. "This will be a resource to our very busy plaintiff attorneys in this country." Dr. Bob Chen, head of vaccine safety for the CDC, expressed relief that "given the sensitivity of the information, we have been able to keep it out of the hands of, let's say, less responsible hands." Dr. John Clements, vaccines advisor at the World Health Organization, declared that "perhaps this study should not have been done at all." He added that "the research results have to be handled," warning that the study "will be taken by others and will be used in other ways beyond the control of this group."

In fact, the government has proved to be far more adept at handling the damage than at protecting children's health. The CDC paid the Institute of Medicine to conduct a new study to whitewash the risks of thimerosal, ordering researchers to "rule out" the chemical's link to autism. It withheld Verstraeten's findings, even though they had been slated for immediate publication, and told other scientists that his original data had been "lost" and could not be replicated. And to thwart the Freedom of Information Act, it handed its giant database of vaccine records over to a private company, declaring it off-limits to researchers. By the time Verstraeten finally published his study in 2003, he had gone to work for GlaxoSmithKline and reworked his data to bury the link between thimerosal and autism.

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Canada will have enough flu vaccines to share

This morning someone from the Ontario Campers' Association was on the news saying that summer camps were safe for campers. Peacenik thought for a moment that he was watching a rerun of Jaws when the mayor of Amity refuses to close the public beach for fear of ruining the town's tourist industry.

The summer camps are a warning of what will happen when schools reopen in the fall, just when the fall flu season arrives. Will the teacher even show up for work? Do school boards have a plan? Will bus drivers show up for work? Will a vaccine be ready? Will it work? Will anyone take it? So many questions. And Peacenik has no sense that society will be ready for a new and improved swine flu pandemic tomorrow, or in the fall.

Gloria Galloway

Ottawa — From Friday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Friday, Jul. 17, 2009 09:08AM EDT

Canadians will have a better chance of getting vaccinated against the pandemic influenza than people in many other countries, including the United States and Britain, thanks to nearly a decade of planning for the disease's arrival.

“We're actually in a fairly unique position of having domestic capacity, of having planned for that in Canada now for many years,” David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer, said in an interview with The Globe and Mail Thursday.

In 2001, the federal government began a 10-year agreement with a drug company that was eventually sold to GlaxoSmithKline. That contract obligates the giant pharmaceutical manufacturer to provide vaccine to every Canadian who wants it in the event of a pandemic.

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WHO warns of worldwide vaccine shortfall for coming flu season

Peacenik knows not everyone is a big fan of vaccines, and not everyone is a big fan of hoarding, and not everyone thinks swine flu is going to be a big problem. But this story in the Globe and Mail and similar stories in other papers are ramping up a sense of concern. School closures this fall are almost a given. And who gets the vaccine if it is available is a huge issue. A couple of weeks ago there was concern about compulsory mass innoculations. Today there is a concern about vaccine availability. If the vaccine is available. And if Peacenik had access to it. Would Peacenik take the vaccine. Peacenik doesn't like needles. But Peacenik would get innoculated. Would you?

A nurse fills needles with flu vaccine at a clinic in Victoria.

Caroline Alphonso and Gloria Galloway

Toronto and Ottawa — From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2009 05:38AM EDT

The worldwide supply of a pandemic influenza vaccine will take twice as long to manufacture and countries could have barely half of what they need for the fall's flu season if current production problems persist, the World Health Organization revealed Monday.

Canadian health authorities admitted that not everyone will receive the vaccine at the start of the flu season, as they scrambled to prioritize which groups would move to the head of the queue. Pharmaceutical manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline Inc. is under contract to produce enough vaccine for all Canadians who wish to receive it, but it's unclear how quickly the vaccine will be rolled out and even if most will be vaccinated in the event the virus returns with a vengeance this fall.

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Swine Flu Vaccine: The Race Is On

Peacenik has been reading a couple of interesting articles lately. This one by Robert Rapier asks the question: What if I'm wrong? This got Peacenik thinking about lots of what ifs. What if Peacenik is wrong about financial and societal collapse? (7 more banks were closed in the U.S. yesterday). What if Peacenik is wrong about Peak Oil? (Rapier's article discusses this possibility). What if Peacenik is wrong about swine flu?

It seems that swine flu will get more serious in the fall. It is a huge problem in Argentina right now. It is winter in Argentina. 40 percent of hospital workers are refusing to go to work right now for fear of catching the flu. And there are discussions about mass innoculations in the U.S. They are racing to make a vaccine that works. They may not have time to test it. What if Peacenik is wrong? Peacenik will put away his medical masks, and hand sanitizers, and aspirin, and Peacenik will be ready for the next pandemic. No harm done. Are you ready for swine flu? What if you are wrong?

By Daniel J. DeNoon
WebMD Health News

June 26, 2009 -- The United States is racing to make huge supplies of swine flu vaccine -- and trying to figure out who needs it most -- even as the pandemic sweeps the globe.

At least one of the five vaccine makers supplying U.S. swine flu vaccine already has bulk vaccine coming off the production line. The others soon will follow.

Clinical tests will begin within days as researchers struggle to answer basic questions about whether the vaccine works, how big a dose is needed, whether protection will take one shot or two, and whether the vaccine seems safe.

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