The Atlantic article: sur rebuttal

Peacenik has read a cross section of articles. Pro vaccine and con vaccine. Vaccines are becoming publicly available in Guelph on Friday. There will be clinics running all day for weeks. The Canadian vaccine will have adjuvants. But Canada has ordered some vaccine without adjuvants for pregnant women. This fact has added to any apprehension Peacenik has about the vaccines.

Peacenik doesn't know if the Canadian vaccine will create side effects that a vaccine without adjuvants will have. Helen Branswell, a respected Canadian medical reporter, says that this year's Canadian vaccine will cause sorer arms than last year's due to the adjuvants. Peacenik is hoping to golf on Saturday. Peacenik doesn't want a sore arm. So Peacenik will delay getting vaccinated until the first available chance after Saturday. Peacenik will get the swine flu vaccine and the seasonal vaccine.

But Peacenik also has a question. Peacenik Jr. almost certainly had the swine flu. But no tests were taken to confirm it. Should Peacenik Jr. still get vaccinated? Should Punditman? Should Don Cherry? Should Taxi Guy?

Posted on: October 27, 2009 6:31 AM, by revere

On Saturday we posted our take on The Atlantic magazine article by Shannon Brownlee and Jeanne Lenzer. It's a major story in the November issue, a banner across the top of the cover page reading: Swine flu: Does the vaccine really work? We tried to ignore it. People kept asking us to comment on it, but we didn't want to get entangled in vaccine controversies. As Orac warned me, it's a game of Whac-A-Mole. But we got fed up and posted our global response, not a point by point refutation, since that wasn't what the issue was. Our main point was that it was a straw man argument built around the narrative device of the brave, mavericky truth teller who is shunned by colleagues and has to eat alone at conferences. A scientific Enemy of the People. Not unexpectedly it drew a sharp response from the authors here and elsewhere. So like the worker who gets his sleeve caught in the machine, we are being drawn inexorably into the gears of the vaccine controversy. Sigh. We should have known better. But what's done is done, so we will add this to our initial immediate reply to the authors.

Brownlee/Lenzer title their response to us, "Faith-based science not methodolatry is the problem." This is apparently a reference to our use of the neologism methodolatry to describe what we see as Dr. Jefferson's overweaning fealty to the randomized trial as the only reliable knowledge. It was actually a rather minor point, but not to hear the authors tell it:

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Why CDC says this year's flu season is "very sobering"

Peacenik drove Peacenik's son, Peacenik Jr. to Peacenik Jr.'s music lesson last night. On the way there Peacenik Jr. declared that Peacenik Jr. thought that...cough.....cough....Peacenik Jr. had the swine flu. Peacenik Jr.looked up swine flu....cough...cough...symptoms on the Internet.

Peacenik Jr. had all the symptoms save two. According to some sources that is pretty conclusive. Peacenik hopes Peacenik Jr. doesn't have swine flu. Peacenik thinks Peacenik Jr. didn't seem sick enough. Does Peacenik Jr. have the swine flu? Has Peacenik been exposed in a closed vehicle to a coughing swine flu victim? Will the swine flu vaccine be available soon enough? Should Peacenik isolate Peacenik's self?

Posted on: October 19, 2009 6:08 AM, by revere

Monday morning, start of week three of the official flu season (which began October 4). CDC's scientific spokeswoman on the flu, Dr. Anne Schuchat has said we are seeing "unprecedented" flu activity for this time of year, including an unusual toll in the pediatric age group. What does "unprecedented" mean? It's not very specific on what precedents are included, but if we confine ourselves to the three years before this one, we can get a good idea of just how unusual this flu season is. This week CDC unveiled a new graphic for their Emerging Infections Program (EIP) (I liked the old one better; this one is not very legible), the component of the surveillance system that tracks laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations in children and adults. It collects data in 60 counties covering 12 metropolitan areas of 10 states (San Francisco CA, Denver CO, New Haven CT, Atlanta GA, Baltimore MD, Minneapolis/St. Paul MN, Albuquerque NM, Las Cruces, NM, Albany NY, Rochester NY, Portland OR, and Nashville TN). It appears CDC has added six new sites (in IA, ID, MI, ND, OK and SD), but the data here are for the original 10 so comparisons can be made. This is a passive surveillance system that reviews hospital laboratory, admissions and infection logs at sites chosen to allow calculation of rates per population in the hospital catchment areas. Here is what the graphic looks like as of last Friday:

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Why the epidemiology of swine flu matters

Peacenik knows Punditman is sick and tired of posting about swine flu and vaccines. But Peacenik isn't. Peacenik doesn't know if the authors of the article Punditman posted are quacks or not. There is lots of bad science available to support any argument. George bush just based 8 years of his presidency on bad science. And unfortunately bad science is so entrenched in today's society that it truly is difficult to make informed decisions about some topics.

Companies obviously have agendas. As do agencies, NGO's, lobbyists, the media and bloggers. Revere at Effect Measure seems to Peacenik to be someone who is trustworthy. Reading the comments to this post by Revere though does get into the question of adjuvants being added to vaccines. This makes Peacenik queasy. And this all may be academic in any case. In Canada the vaccine may not be available in time to make a difference. Peacenik will not be at the front of the line in any case if and when vaccine becomes available. Pregnant women and children first. Bad side effects will probably be known before cowardly Peacenik does or does not line up. Will Peacenik get the shot? Will Snowman? Will Punditamn? Will Taxiguy? Will JohnnyAnon? Will Humphrey the Hippie? Will Puttyman? Will Don Cherry?

Posted on: October 11, 2009 2:00 PM, by revere

If you are hesitating to be vaccinated for swine flu this year, perhaps this post will help you make up your mind. If it does, I hope it pushes you to get vaccinated, but whatever persuasion we attempt here will only be from a recital of what we know of the epidemiology of this pandemic. Because it is the different epidemiology that is the main feature, not the clinical characteristics or the virulence of the virus. So far this looks pretty much like a standard influenza A virus -- except for the epidemiology. Since I'm an epidemiologist, you might expect me to think this is important, and I do. Epidemiology is the public health science that studies the patterns of illness in populations. One kind of pattern we study is who is getting sick. And it is a change in this pattern that is one of the big differences between a pandemic strain and a seasonal strain.

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No need to change vaccine policy based on Canadian flu shot data: WHO

So lets see if Peacenik has this straight. The international medical community discounts Canadian research that says if you have had a seasonal flu shot in the past, you are more susceptible to getting the swine flu.

But many Canadian jurisdictions, including Ontario, where Peacenik lives, are delaying giving seasonal flu shots until they have finished giving the swine flu shots. Keeping in mind that the swine flu vaccine is still not available, and the swine flu pandemic is simultaneously worsening in Ontario.

And Peacnik still doesn't know if the Ontario vaccine will use adjuvants in the vaccine. The U.S. will not. The U.K. will. Peacenik thinks that by the time there is an available flu shot for Peacenik, that Peacenik will shrug, roll up Peacenik's sleve, and get the shot.

By Helen Branswell Medical Reporter (CP) –

TORONTO — International influenza vaccine experts are apparently not convinced that Canadian researchers have found a true link between getting a seasonal flu shot and catching swine flu.

The consensus that emerged from a World Health Organization teleconference Friday on the controversial data seemed to be that the Canadian findings are likely due to some confounding factor or factors in the data themselves and may not reflect a real increased risk, according to a WHO official who helped pull together the meeting.

"From a WHO point of view, the fact that the findings are not replicated in other countries I think is reassuring for us that this is an outlier, if you like, the unexpected findings that are coming out of Canada," said David Wood, co-ordinator of the quality, safety and standards team of WHO's department of immunization, vaccines and biologicals.

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Nurses File Lawsuit Over Mandatory Flu Vaccine

The management of the current swine flu pandemic is becoming farcical. Peacenik doesn't know what good public health policy is anymore. The Star recently reported that there is a surge of swine flu cases in the Greater Toronto Area. The second wave has arrived. Peacenik was galvanized. Ready to wear Peacenik's N-65 medical mask everywhere.

Then there was the story that the vaccine manufacturers weren't going to be legally liable for any problems with flu shots. The Canadian taxpayer was going to be liable. Whaaaaat?

Then of course there is the preliminary story that seasonal flu shots increase the likely hood of getting swine flu. This story has not been debunked. Is it true? And of course there won't be any vaccine until the flu season is winding down in November.

And all the fights agains mandatory flu shots. Does anyone know what the best approach is? Peacenik doesn't. Have a good weekend.

Update: Peacenik just spoke to a colleague who just returned from speaking with her doctor. Peacenik's colleague asked the doctor if she should get the seasonal flu shot. The doctor said he just returned from a conference about the swine flu and the doctor was confused. Didn't really know what the answer was and said 'on balance if your are healthy you should get the seasonal flu shot". A doctor just gets back from a swine flu conference and is hazy about whether to take the shot or not. Peacenik is not the only one in the dark.

by KOMO News Staff

The nurses' union said in a statement that it supports a voluntary vaccination program, but that any mandatory policy should be overseen by the state or federal government. (Image: KOMO News)

SEATTLE - A union representing 16,000 registered nurses in Washington state has filed a federal lawsuit against MultiCare Health System for implementing a mandatory flu vaccination policy.

"This new policy will force nurses to get the flu vaccination or to wear face masks as a condition of employment and may result in the firing of nurses who do not comply with the policy," the union said in a statement.

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Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m'

Anarchy? For some weird reason this word jumps out at Peacenik. Peacenik can't ignore a story that includes anarchy. Peacenik thinks there is lots of anarchy on the way. A perfect storm of anarchy. The projections for the swine flu pandemic are getting scarier and scarier.

This story talks about supplying antiviral drugs, vaccines, etc. to poor countries. Peacenik is not even sure there is going to be enough vaccine even for a supposedly rich country like Canada. When Peacenik reads stories about actual survivors of swine flu, Peacenik is more and more inclined to line up for the vaccine when and if it becomes available. Will the line ups be orderly. Will there be anarchy. Will Don Cherry push his way in front of Peacenik? Peacenik will see.

A woman wears a mask as preventive measure against swine flu, at Sassoon hospital in Pune, India, Aug 11, 2009. Photograph: Dhiraj Singh/AP

UN report says pandemic may result in anarchy unless western world pays for antiviral drugs and vaccines

Rajeev Syal

The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world's poorest nations unless £900m can be raised from rich countries to pay for vaccines and antiviral medicines, says a UN report leaked to the Observer.

The disclosure will provoke concerns that health officials will not be able to stem the growth of the worldwide H1N1 pandemic in developing countries. If the virus takes hold in the poorest nations, millions could die and the economies of fragile countries could be destroyed.

Health ministers around the globe were sent the warning on Thursday in a report on the costs of averting a humanitarian disaster in the next few months. It comes as officials inside the World Health Organisation, the UN's public health body, said they feared they would not be able to raise half that amount because of the global downturn.

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Hospitals ready for swine flu wave

As Peacenik sat on the inter-city bus on Peacenik's way to work this morning, cringingly listening to the quiet coughing of Peacenik's fellow passengers, Peacenik wondered about Peacenik's chances of catching the swine flu. Peacenik tried to only exhale for the hour long trip. Peacenik heard that a public service city employee in Guelph has the swine flu. Peacenik works in public service in Toronto. Why are Peacenik's eyelids so heavy? Does Peacenik have myasthenia gravis? Peacenik thinks that's the problem in a flu pandemic. Everyone begins to panic. Every ache and pain and heavy eyelid is a symptom.

It is the earliest days of the new flu season. The authorities have installed a Purell dispenser outside Peacenik's office. Instructions have been given. Plans have been made. Peacenik slathered Purell all over Peacenik's hands, right up to the elbow, when Peacenik got to work. Is it time to don the latex gloves and face masks? Is it time for social distancing? Is it possible to hide from a flu bug? Why are Peacenik's eyelids so heavy?

Last Updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2009 | 4:39 AM ET

At CHEO, volunteers have been screening visitors and directing them to a handwashing station. (CBC)

To keep swine flu from spreading through Ottawa hospitals, medical staff are screening patients at hospital entrances and providing separate waiting rooms for those with flu symptoms.

The measures are part of plans to prepare for the next wave of swine flu or H1N1 virus this fall.

"Definitely anyone that comes to CHEO with even a thought that they might have swine flu or H1N1 will be cared for separately," said Dr. Lindy Sampson, chief of infectious diseases and head of pandemic planning at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario.

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Thoughts on Swine Flu: Again!

punditman says...
Punditman has posted extensively about what he thinks of the swine flu threat and the mass distraction/mass vaccination/mass profit that he suspects is underway. Punditman doesn't understand why folks don't take a more skeptical view of this issue. Perhaps it is still early days.

Or perhaps the truth is too ugly to face. Maybe even uglier than lying about war or economic crises. Maybe people can't get their heads around the idea that global and national government health agencies don't always know what they're talking about, that their data is unreliable or manipulated, that the lack of debate and the near complete blackout of critical viewpoints concerning swine flu is actually a natural occurrance; as with other issues it is part of a bureacratic and media groupthink reminiscent of the herd mentaility in the lead up to the war in Iraq. Moreover, perhaps it is too scary to consider that authorities could put at risk the health of millions through possibly unsafe vaccines while shady corporations with horrible track records make massive profits?

It's no wonder people would rather think otherwise. After all, it is much easier to believe that governments and Big Pharma are putting forth a heroic effort to combat a dangerous pandemic, that their vaccine is necessary and safe, that everything they say and do is in the interest of protecting humanity. And that only wingnut conspiracy theorists would question the way this whole thing has unfolded.

Is swine flu an example of a very big lie? Punditman doesn't know for sure. But read this. Then decide for yourself.

Tamiflu causes sickness and nightmares in children, study finds

punditman says...There are tons of media reports on the internet saying that Tamiflu will not work against Swine Flu, and furthermore, that even regular seasonal flu strains are becoming resistant to it. And yet governments have stockpiled billions of dollars worth of it. What a freaking waste of everyone's money (in less of case you own stock in it). Furthermore, Tamiflu may be very bad for you! In 2007, the FDA finally began investigating some 1,800 adverse event reports related to the anti-viral drug. Serious symptoms included convulsions, delirium or delusions, and 14 deaths in children and teens as a result of neuropsychiatric problems and brain infections (which led Japan to ban Tamiflu for children in 2007). And yet they are handing it out to children like candy. What a crime.

-your friendly neighbourhood wingnut.

by David Rose

Children report a range of side-effects, but the official advice is that Tamiflu is safe.

More than half of children taking the swine flu drug Tamiflu experience side-effects such as nausea and nightmares, research suggests.

An estimated 150,000 people with flu symptoms were prescribed the drug through a new hotline and website last week, according to figures revealed yesterday.

Studies of children attending three schools in London and one in the South West showed that 51-53 per cent had one or more side-effects from the medication, which is offered to everyone in England with swine flu symptoms.

The research by the Health Protection Agency emerged as Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer for England, said that swine flu infections “may have reached a plateau”.

Releasing the latest figures, Sir Liam said that an estimated 110,000 new cases of the H1N1 virus were diagnosed by doctors in the week to Sunday. That did not include those using the new National Pandemic Flu Service for England to obtain antiviral drugs without seeing their GP.

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H1N1 Pandemic: Pentagon Planning Deployment of Troops in Support of Nationwide Vaccination

The epidemic that never was: Policy-making and the swine flu scare

According to CNN, the Pentagon is "to establish regional teams of military personnel to assist civilian authorities in the event of a significant outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, according to Defense Department officials."

"The proposal is awaiting final approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

The officials would not be identified because the proposal from U.S. Northern Command's Gen. Victor Renuart has not been approved by the secretary.

The plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There is no final decision on how the military effort would be manned, but one source said it would likely include personnel from all branches of the military.

It has yet to be determined how many troops would be needed and whether they would come from the active duty or the National Guard and Reserve forces.

Civilian authorities would lead any relief efforts in the event of a major outbreak, the official said. The military, as they would for a natural disaster or other significant emergency situation, could provide support and fulfill any tasks that civilian authorities could not, such as air transport or testing of large numbers of viral samples from infected patients.

As a first step, Gates is being asked to sign a so-called "execution order" that would authorize the military to begin to conduct the detailed planning to execute the proposed plan.

Orders to deploy actual forces would be reviewed later, depending on how much of a health threat the flu poses this fall, the officials said." (CNN, Military planning for possible H1N1 outbreak, July 2009, emphasis added)

The implications are far-reaching.

The decision points towards the militarization of civilian instituions, including law enforcement and public health. The Pentagon is already planning on the number of troops to be deployed in the case of a pandemic. A nationwide vaccination program is already planned for the Fall. The pharmaceutical industry is slated to deliver 160 million vaccine doses by the Fall, enough doses to vaccinate more than half of America's population.

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Guillain-Barre Syndrome after Influenza Vaccination - More Lessons from 1976

In the recent past Peacenik has said that Peacenik would take a swine flu vaccine if and when it is ready. After reading this article Peacenik is saying that Peacenik will do some more research on a given vaccine before getting vaccinated. Peacenik can't ignore the controversies surrounding vaccines. And Peacenik doesn't trust the big pharma companies. Would they rush a vaccine to market just to cash in? Would they market a vaccine without testing it fully? They've done it before. Peacnenik hopes there will be informed unbiased people keeping the public aware of the issues in the inevitable vaccination panic to come. Will those people be politicians? Probably not. Will those people be in the media? Probably not.

by: SusanC
Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 19:45:18 PM EDT


The 1976 vaccine was correlated with an increased incidence of GBS, which, according to a recent study described earlier, may be due to molecular mimicry, between the HA molecule and human gangliosides, proteins that permeate our nervous system.

Ideally one would want to repeat the study and confirm the findings, at least, but we are in a pandemic, and tptb are in a rush to provide vaccines for millions of people. In the absence of further data, is there anything we can learn, even tentatively?

If HA is indeed a biological mimic, it could account for the very small but increased incidence of GBS after flu vaccines in general, and the 1976 one in particular. The effect of biological mimicry is, by definition, dependent on how closely the molecules are similar. To the extent that different HAs from different flu viruses have slight differences in conformation, they would probably have varying degrees of mimicry, such that vaccines made from these HAs may therefore have varying ability to induce GBS. Which is compatible with the varying incidence of GBS reported after seasonal flu vaccinations in different years. (see Haber 2004, Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Influenza Vaccination)

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