punditman says... As we look ahead to a new year, this video provides some interesting insights as to what is happening with the US economy. This guy Howard Davidowitz seems to have a good handle on some core economic indicators. I'm not sure about his ideology; perhaps Peacenik can chime in here since I originally found this on the Automatic Earth website.
At any rate, it is true that retail sales were up this year at Christmas time. But why? Well, 30% of consumers are currently responsible for retail sales and these did much better this year because of the strength of capital markets. So this means the luxury retail area -- just lawyers, bankers and CEOs out having some fun holiday shopping. Meanwhile, unemployment went up! In fact there is 18.5% unemployment and underemployment in the US.
The fact is, consumers have no money and those that do are paying off debt more than they are spending. Yes, some folks are doing better (the rich). But the commercial real estate crisis is not over; in fact, unsurprisingly, the future in the retail sector is online. Malls are no longer being built. What are they going to do with all that space? The death of the shopping mall would not necessarily be a bad thing. That is, if you factor in the death of suburbia, peak oil, climate change...
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
1/3/11
10/30/09
Out of Work
Punditman says...
I am closing this blog for now. I lost my "real" job yesterday. With a tinge of unintended irony, the hammer came down on my head eighty years to the day after the crash of 1929. That is to say, my main client for whom I have worked for four and a half years suddenly laid off a whole bunch of folk: consultants, editors and the like. Thus I have no spare time to dedicate to this blog, as finding work takes precedence.
If you know of anything that you think may suit, (even if you don't know me), please use the comments section or email me here: wayne@editme.ca
I am open to all ideas, locally, or in a telecommuting sense.
Thanks.
(Peacenik, who still has a real job, may in future, be found somewhere in the blogosphere, espousing his witty, intelligent, doom-filled musings. We will keep you posted as to his landing spot, should this occur.)
I am closing this blog for now. I lost my "real" job yesterday. With a tinge of unintended irony, the hammer came down on my head eighty years to the day after the crash of 1929. That is to say, my main client for whom I have worked for four and a half years suddenly laid off a whole bunch of folk: consultants, editors and the like. Thus I have no spare time to dedicate to this blog, as finding work takes precedence.
If you know of anything that you think may suit, (even if you don't know me), please use the comments section or email me here: wayne@editme.ca
I am open to all ideas, locally, or in a telecommuting sense.
Thanks.
(Peacenik, who still has a real job, may in future, be found somewhere in the blogosphere, espousing his witty, intelligent, doom-filled musings. We will keep you posted as to his landing spot, should this occur.)
7/17/09
July 16, 2009: Desensitization
As Peacenik walked to the bus this morning Peacenik noticed swarms of little red ants on the sidewalk. They seemed aimless. Peacenik wondered if these were the new European fire ants. What did they know?
Then on University Avenue Peacenik saw swarms of people, also seemingly aimless. What did they know? World leaders, and the leaders of Wall Street look at people the way Peacenik looked at those ants. 500,000 more unemployed people in the U.S. this week. 500,000 more people who won't be buying new cars or new tv's this week. The leaders don't care. Is society, and peoples' economic well being, and peoples' health as fragile as the ants Peacenik saw this morning? Everyday people choose which information to act on or to ignore. Why did Peacenik notice the ants this morning. Were they a sign? Is a storm coming? Were the ants a warning? People ants. Ants people. Have a good weekend.
by Ilargi
Then on University Avenue Peacenik saw swarms of people, also seemingly aimless. What did they know? World leaders, and the leaders of Wall Street look at people the way Peacenik looked at those ants. 500,000 more unemployed people in the U.S. this week. 500,000 more people who won't be buying new cars or new tv's this week. The leaders don't care. Is society, and peoples' economic well being, and peoples' health as fragile as the ants Peacenik saw this morning? Everyday people choose which information to act on or to ignore. Why did Peacenik notice the ants this morning. Were they a sign? Is a storm coming? Were the ants a warning? People ants. Ants people. Have a good weekend.
by Ilargi
Washington, D.C. Ingenious Prohibition-era fashion accessory, the cane-flask.
Foreclosures. I’ve never been foreclosed on. I can only imagine what it must feel like, be like. Having to tell your little children that they will never see their home again. That they will now live with grandma, or in a smaller place, or a tent.
"More than 1.5 million properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the six months through June, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. That’s a 15 percent increase from the year earlier. One in 84 received a filing."
Annualized, that's 3 million homes, or one in 42 U.S. households, which directly affects some 10 million people, and indirectly perhaps as much as a third of the population, with neighbors, suppliers, family etc etc. tossed in.
We’re threatening to become blind and immune to numbers. "Trillion" is a household term, where it never was until 2 years ago, like almost no-one would have known what a tsunami was until one happened, and now everybody thinks they do. The effect of billion and trillion becoming so normal in our daily language, what does it mean to those of us not directly impacted that 10 million of our fellow citizens are under threat of losing their homes?
Read on...
7/14/09
Drifting Downward
punditman says...Cogent writer Mike Whitney pulls no punches in this detailed account of what is happening with the US economy. He talks about how the Republicans are trying to sabotage the Obama stimulus plan. He talks about how Liberal economists have done a lousy job of explaining the need for more stimulus (just as the first stimulus is starting to have some positive effects). He talks about how stimulus is not a panacea but a bridge to take up the slack in demand, but it does not work without the political will to re-regulate. He talks about how inflation is the bogeyman that doesn't exist (for the time being). He talks about how the future is deflationary.
Punditman further says that deflation is bad unless you have a stable job, (especially if you have wage increases), no debt, a cash reserve and you don't want (or need) to sell your house anytime soon. As prices drop, such people will laugh all the way to the one pub left in their town, where they will sit around and drink with themselves as they ponder where all the people have gone. But how many people fit that profile? To avoid the worst case scenario, Punditman says certain things need to change starting with wages and a move away from the financialization of the economy, which has caused so much mayhem. Maybe things have to get a lot worse in the US than 18% real unemployment before people's consciousness turns? Punditman hopes for a change in consciousness.
The Deflating Economy
By MIKE WHITNEY
There should be a modest uptick in GDP in either in the 4th quarter 2009 or the 1st quarter 2010. This will mark the end of the current 20 month-long recession, but not the end of the crisis. The blip in growth doesn't mean that the troubles are over or that the economy is on the way to recovery. It simply means that Obama's $787 billion fiscal stimulus is beginning to kick in, giving a boost to consumer spending and generating short-term economic activity. Regrettably, when the stimulus runs out, the economy will slide back into negative territory. That's because the US consumer has crossed an important threshold and no longer has the ability to drive the economy through debt-fueled consumption. The data indicates a critical change in consumer behavior which portends a shift away from the current model for economic growth. It's a whole new ballgame.
From the mid-1980s to 2007, the ratio of debt-to-GDP rocketed from 165% to to over 350%; more than doubling in that same period. The build-up of personal debt follows the exact same trend-line as the aggregate profits of the financial sector; they're opposite sides of the same coin. Financial institutions increase profitability by expanding credit and inflating asset bubbles, not by allocating capital to productive enterprises. Their business model is inherently flawed. Speculative bubblemaking is Wall Street's method of shifting wealth from workers to the investor class. It never fails. It's the reason why 42 states are now facing budget shortfalls, unemployment has risen to 9.5 percent, and $45 trillion has vanished from global equity markets. Financialization has created a global crisis, crushed consumer demand, increased systemic instability, and put the economy into a nosedive.
In the last decade, the shifting of wealth from one class to another has greatly accelerated due to deregulation and the Fed's low interest rates. Stagnant wages have forced reluctant participants into the market seeking a better return on their savings, while lax lending standards and easy credit have seduced workers into increasing their personal debt-load. All of this has been done by design to ensure the profits for the few over the well-being of the many.
Keep Reading...
Punditman further says that deflation is bad unless you have a stable job, (especially if you have wage increases), no debt, a cash reserve and you don't want (or need) to sell your house anytime soon. As prices drop, such people will laugh all the way to the one pub left in their town, where they will sit around and drink with themselves as they ponder where all the people have gone. But how many people fit that profile? To avoid the worst case scenario, Punditman says certain things need to change starting with wages and a move away from the financialization of the economy, which has caused so much mayhem. Maybe things have to get a lot worse in the US than 18% real unemployment before people's consciousness turns? Punditman hopes for a change in consciousness.
The Deflating Economy
By MIKE WHITNEY
There should be a modest uptick in GDP in either in the 4th quarter 2009 or the 1st quarter 2010. This will mark the end of the current 20 month-long recession, but not the end of the crisis. The blip in growth doesn't mean that the troubles are over or that the economy is on the way to recovery. It simply means that Obama's $787 billion fiscal stimulus is beginning to kick in, giving a boost to consumer spending and generating short-term economic activity. Regrettably, when the stimulus runs out, the economy will slide back into negative territory. That's because the US consumer has crossed an important threshold and no longer has the ability to drive the economy through debt-fueled consumption. The data indicates a critical change in consumer behavior which portends a shift away from the current model for economic growth. It's a whole new ballgame.
From the mid-1980s to 2007, the ratio of debt-to-GDP rocketed from 165% to to over 350%; more than doubling in that same period. The build-up of personal debt follows the exact same trend-line as the aggregate profits of the financial sector; they're opposite sides of the same coin. Financial institutions increase profitability by expanding credit and inflating asset bubbles, not by allocating capital to productive enterprises. Their business model is inherently flawed. Speculative bubblemaking is Wall Street's method of shifting wealth from workers to the investor class. It never fails. It's the reason why 42 states are now facing budget shortfalls, unemployment has risen to 9.5 percent, and $45 trillion has vanished from global equity markets. Financialization has created a global crisis, crushed consumer demand, increased systemic instability, and put the economy into a nosedive.
In the last decade, the shifting of wealth from one class to another has greatly accelerated due to deregulation and the Fed's low interest rates. Stagnant wages have forced reluctant participants into the market seeking a better return on their savings, while lax lending standards and easy credit have seduced workers into increasing their personal debt-load. All of this has been done by design to ensure the profits for the few over the well-being of the many.
Keep Reading...
7/9/09
The Economic Free Fall Is Over
Peacenik has followed Bonddad's coverage of the financial crisis for years. Peacenik has quoted Bonddad as the economy sank into depression. So, in the interest of fairness, Peacenik will post this article by Bonddad saying basically that the economy has bottomed out. But Peacenik doesn't really believe Bondad. And if you read the comments to his piece a lot of others don't believe him either. And what if this isn't the bottom? What if there is no uptick? What if Bonddad is wrong? What metrics do you measure a turn around by?
The Economic Free Fall Is Over
Gloom and doom is the way of blogs lately. Nothing is good; everything is bad. Unfortunately, lost in this translation is a set of monthly trends that shows the worse is over. Now -- this does not mean everything is roses. Far from it. As I have mentioned in the past the recovery will be weak with slow growth and high (7%-8% minimum) unemployment for the better part of a year. But the data indicates the worse is behind us.
Before I begin, let me make a few observations.
1.) There are two predominant ways to present economic data: year over year and month over month. Year over year removes seasonality. Here's an illustration. Suppose you are looking at the retail sector's employment trends starting in September and you see in increase in hiring. A logical conclusion is things are looking up because companies are hiring more. However, this excludes the possibility of a seasonal effect; namely that retail typically hires more people as the holiday season approaches. As a result, it's better to compare this September to last September -- this removes "seasonality" from the equation.
Read on...
The Economic Free Fall Is Over
Gloom and doom is the way of blogs lately. Nothing is good; everything is bad. Unfortunately, lost in this translation is a set of monthly trends that shows the worse is over. Now -- this does not mean everything is roses. Far from it. As I have mentioned in the past the recovery will be weak with slow growth and high (7%-8% minimum) unemployment for the better part of a year. But the data indicates the worse is behind us.
Before I begin, let me make a few observations.
1.) There are two predominant ways to present economic data: year over year and month over month. Year over year removes seasonality. Here's an illustration. Suppose you are looking at the retail sector's employment trends starting in September and you see in increase in hiring. A logical conclusion is things are looking up because companies are hiring more. However, this excludes the possibility of a seasonal effect; namely that retail typically hires more people as the holiday season approaches. As a result, it's better to compare this September to last September -- this removes "seasonality" from the equation.
Read on...
1/26/09
Changes Ahead You'd Better Believe In
The Freefalling Economy
By P. SAINATH
When the applause dies down, the first African-American President of the United States will have to deal with things less cheerful than his Inaugural Ball. The US is losing close to 16,000 jobs a day on average. (That was 14,000 a day just a month ago.) It lost over 1.1 million jobs in just the two months of November and December. And the December loss in payroll employment (5,24,000) recorded by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, is a provisional figure. It is likely be revised upwards by several thousand - as were the numbers of earlier months.
This means that 2008, with 2.75 million jobs lost, was the worst year for layoffs in the United States since 1945. What does President Obama do? And what will he have to confront in doing it? He will have to create jobs on a scale unheard of in decades in his nation. Unemployment benefits, giant public works, massive infrastructure spending, a good health system, all these would also help lessen the hardship ahead. He will need - assuming he wants that - to flip a system where wealth still flows most disproportionately towards the top 1 per cent. In any effort he makes, he will run into an awesome corporate power - already regrouping from Meltdown Phase I.
Parallels with Franklin Delano Roosevelt are tempting - and dicey. True, FDR did not start out as a progressive. Quite the contrary. But circumstances forced him to take a path he might not have dreamed of. In that, there is perhaps hope for Obama. However, FDR lived and worked in a very different era. In an America where Labour and poor people had a voice. Where unions mattered. Where many diverse political currents had their own following. Where Socialists, Populists, Communists, Anarchists and others made an impact on political thought and process. In such a world, it was not only easier to do the bold thing - it was perhaps unavoidable. What kind of diversity is there now? Obama can choose to toe the corporate line broadly. Or he can choose to toe the corporate line narrowly. Anything else would be radical. It was great to have Pete Seeger at the inaugural concert. Alas, it won't be that best-loved folk singer calling the tune now.
The America Obama inherits is one where most Democrats and Republicans in Congress unite to stifle Labour.
Keep Reading...
punditman says....
If you have a bruise, apply ice, right? Punditman is recovering from a bruising game of pond hockey, only to wake to find that Iceland's government has now fallen. The problem is that for deep bone bruises, ice will help, but it will take months, even years, before the body heals the area. Good luck, Iceland.
Meanwhile, economists whose brains are not bruised have a pessimistic outlook on growth for 2009 with greater job losses and worsening economic conditions in the months to come.
In the above article, the author points out that typically, governments will come up tomorrow with something that might have worked yesterday, and he quotes Nouriel Roubini ("Dr. Doom") as follows, "a housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble, and a hedge funds bubble -- are all now bursting simultaneously."
Yeah, I get it— it's an unprecedented global, economic bruising.
Yikes, I'm starting to post like Peacenik. To end on a positive note, let's work towards finding new solutions today that will work for the problems of today—and tomorrow. Only then can we hope to heal these economic contusions.
By P. SAINATH
When the applause dies down, the first African-American President of the United States will have to deal with things less cheerful than his Inaugural Ball. The US is losing close to 16,000 jobs a day on average. (That was 14,000 a day just a month ago.) It lost over 1.1 million jobs in just the two months of November and December. And the December loss in payroll employment (5,24,000) recorded by the Bureau of Labour Statistics, is a provisional figure. It is likely be revised upwards by several thousand - as were the numbers of earlier months.
This means that 2008, with 2.75 million jobs lost, was the worst year for layoffs in the United States since 1945. What does President Obama do? And what will he have to confront in doing it? He will have to create jobs on a scale unheard of in decades in his nation. Unemployment benefits, giant public works, massive infrastructure spending, a good health system, all these would also help lessen the hardship ahead. He will need - assuming he wants that - to flip a system where wealth still flows most disproportionately towards the top 1 per cent. In any effort he makes, he will run into an awesome corporate power - already regrouping from Meltdown Phase I.
Parallels with Franklin Delano Roosevelt are tempting - and dicey. True, FDR did not start out as a progressive. Quite the contrary. But circumstances forced him to take a path he might not have dreamed of. In that, there is perhaps hope for Obama. However, FDR lived and worked in a very different era. In an America where Labour and poor people had a voice. Where unions mattered. Where many diverse political currents had their own following. Where Socialists, Populists, Communists, Anarchists and others made an impact on political thought and process. In such a world, it was not only easier to do the bold thing - it was perhaps unavoidable. What kind of diversity is there now? Obama can choose to toe the corporate line broadly. Or he can choose to toe the corporate line narrowly. Anything else would be radical. It was great to have Pete Seeger at the inaugural concert. Alas, it won't be that best-loved folk singer calling the tune now.
The America Obama inherits is one where most Democrats and Republicans in Congress unite to stifle Labour.
Keep Reading...
punditman says....
If you have a bruise, apply ice, right? Punditman is recovering from a bruising game of pond hockey, only to wake to find that Iceland's government has now fallen. The problem is that for deep bone bruises, ice will help, but it will take months, even years, before the body heals the area. Good luck, Iceland.
Meanwhile, economists whose brains are not bruised have a pessimistic outlook on growth for 2009 with greater job losses and worsening economic conditions in the months to come.
In the above article, the author points out that typically, governments will come up tomorrow with something that might have worked yesterday, and he quotes Nouriel Roubini ("Dr. Doom") as follows, "a housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble, and a hedge funds bubble -- are all now bursting simultaneously."
Yeah, I get it— it's an unprecedented global, economic bruising.
Yikes, I'm starting to post like Peacenik. To end on a positive note, let's work towards finding new solutions today that will work for the problems of today—and tomorrow. Only then can we hope to heal these economic contusions.
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