Pandemic puts

Peacenik has been concentrated on the health effect of the swine flu pandemic, whether or not the funeral industry is able to handle a surge in flu related fatalities (it can't), whether or not there will be mass burials (there will be), etc. Peacenik hasn't been thinking about the economic, financial impact. But Garth Turner has.

By Garth Turner

Lining up for flu shots

On a highway not too far from the bunker is a yard where a local bus company keeps its rigs. These guys make their money in the charter business. You know, hauling old ladies to the casino, providing transportation for conventions, trucking tourists from the airport to Niagara Falls.

In the yard are tie-ups for about 30 buses.

One summer day in 2003 I was driving by, and noticed that every slot has a bus sitting idle. Then I heard that most drivers had been laid off. If bus rentals were a measure of economic activity, we were in trouble.

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Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m'

Anarchy? For some weird reason this word jumps out at Peacenik. Peacenik can't ignore a story that includes anarchy. Peacenik thinks there is lots of anarchy on the way. A perfect storm of anarchy. The projections for the swine flu pandemic are getting scarier and scarier.

This story talks about supplying antiviral drugs, vaccines, etc. to poor countries. Peacenik is not even sure there is going to be enough vaccine even for a supposedly rich country like Canada. When Peacenik reads stories about actual survivors of swine flu, Peacenik is more and more inclined to line up for the vaccine when and if it becomes available. Will the line ups be orderly. Will there be anarchy. Will Don Cherry push his way in front of Peacenik? Peacenik will see.

A woman wears a mask as preventive measure against swine flu, at Sassoon hospital in Pune, India, Aug 11, 2009. Photograph: Dhiraj Singh/AP

UN report says pandemic may result in anarchy unless western world pays for antiviral drugs and vaccines

Rajeev Syal

The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world's poorest nations unless £900m can be raised from rich countries to pay for vaccines and antiviral medicines, says a UN report leaked to the Observer.

The disclosure will provoke concerns that health officials will not be able to stem the growth of the worldwide H1N1 pandemic in developing countries. If the virus takes hold in the poorest nations, millions could die and the economies of fragile countries could be destroyed.

Health ministers around the globe were sent the warning on Thursday in a report on the costs of averting a humanitarian disaster in the next few months. It comes as officials inside the World Health Organisation, the UN's public health body, said they feared they would not be able to raise half that amount because of the global downturn.

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Hospitals ready for swine flu wave

As Peacenik sat on the inter-city bus on Peacenik's way to work this morning, cringingly listening to the quiet coughing of Peacenik's fellow passengers, Peacenik wondered about Peacenik's chances of catching the swine flu. Peacenik tried to only exhale for the hour long trip. Peacenik heard that a public service city employee in Guelph has the swine flu. Peacenik works in public service in Toronto. Why are Peacenik's eyelids so heavy? Does Peacenik have myasthenia gravis? Peacenik thinks that's the problem in a flu pandemic. Everyone begins to panic. Every ache and pain and heavy eyelid is a symptom.

It is the earliest days of the new flu season. The authorities have installed a Purell dispenser outside Peacenik's office. Instructions have been given. Plans have been made. Peacenik slathered Purell all over Peacenik's hands, right up to the elbow, when Peacenik got to work. Is it time to don the latex gloves and face masks? Is it time for social distancing? Is it possible to hide from a flu bug? Why are Peacenik's eyelids so heavy?

Last Updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2009 | 4:39 AM ET

At CHEO, volunteers have been screening visitors and directing them to a handwashing station. (CBC)

To keep swine flu from spreading through Ottawa hospitals, medical staff are screening patients at hospital entrances and providing separate waiting rooms for those with flu symptoms.

The measures are part of plans to prepare for the next wave of swine flu or H1N1 virus this fall.

"Definitely anyone that comes to CHEO with even a thought that they might have swine flu or H1N1 will be cared for separately," said Dr. Lindy Sampson, chief of infectious diseases and head of pandemic planning at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario.

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Company Cleared To Test Swine Flu Vaccine Fighting Off Liquidation

Peacenik is not anti flu vaccine. Peacenik has gotten the regular flu vaccine for years. But Peacenik really will ponder whether to take a swine flu vaccine, if there is one. The company is in bankruptcy? That inspires confidence. Plus the timeline in this story suggests this vaccine will miss this flu season in any case. Of course regulators can always cut corners. Why not. To much regulation stiffles innovation, and progress, and crime, and the rip-off of the public. Will there be a flu vaccine this fall for swine flu? Will it be properly tested? Do you trust the government to protect your interests? Will you take the vaccine if there is one? Will Peacenik? Will Punditman?

By Jacqueline Palank

As a new White House report raises the possibility that up to 50% of the U.S. population could contract swine flu this season, one drug maker has come a step closer to distributing a vaccine. That is, if the involuntary bankruptcy filing against it doesn’t get in the way.

Protein Sciences Corp., of Meriden, Conn., is a privately held vaccine maker that last week won federal approval to kick off clinical trials of its vaccine for the H1N1, or swine flu, virus, the Hartford Courant reported. That means Protein Sciences’ PanBlok vaccine will be tested on humans as soon as the next few weeks. Such trials have already started in Australia, where winter - and flu season - are underway.

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Keeping Their Eggs in Their Backyard Nests

Peacenik has been promoting self sufficiency for a while. Urban gardens. Foraging. Solar heat. Getting off the grid. Burying money in your back yard. All kinds of stuff to help you in the dark days ahead. But Peacenik is also a little alarmed by the cavalier attitude of a lot of backyard chicken farmers. Seems everyone wants to get in on the act. Peacenik merely wants to point out once again that bird flu, H1N5, got started in countries where humans and poultry live in close proximity. You might think having some chickens in your backyard is cool, but Peacenik says check out the cost of a bio-hazard suit first.

By WILLIAM NEUMAN

Published: August 3, 2009

As Americans struggle through a dismal recession, many are trying to safeguard themselves from what they fear will be even worse times ahead. They eat out less often. They take vacations closer to home. They put off buying new cars.

And some raise chickens. Lloyd Romriell, a married father of four in Annis, Idaho, recently received seven grown chickens and a coop from a relative. The hens lay a total of about two dozen eggs a week.

“It’s because times are tough. You never know what’s going to happen,” Mr. Romriell said. Although he manages a feed store, he had not kept chickens since he was a child. “If you lose your job tomorrow, you’ve still got food.”

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Guillain-Barre Syndrome after Influenza Vaccination - More Lessons from 1976

In the recent past Peacenik has said that Peacenik would take a swine flu vaccine if and when it is ready. After reading this article Peacenik is saying that Peacenik will do some more research on a given vaccine before getting vaccinated. Peacenik can't ignore the controversies surrounding vaccines. And Peacenik doesn't trust the big pharma companies. Would they rush a vaccine to market just to cash in? Would they market a vaccine without testing it fully? They've done it before. Peacnenik hopes there will be informed unbiased people keeping the public aware of the issues in the inevitable vaccination panic to come. Will those people be politicians? Probably not. Will those people be in the media? Probably not.

by: SusanC
Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 19:45:18 PM EDT


The 1976 vaccine was correlated with an increased incidence of GBS, which, according to a recent study described earlier, may be due to molecular mimicry, between the HA molecule and human gangliosides, proteins that permeate our nervous system.

Ideally one would want to repeat the study and confirm the findings, at least, but we are in a pandemic, and tptb are in a rush to provide vaccines for millions of people. In the absence of further data, is there anything we can learn, even tentatively?

If HA is indeed a biological mimic, it could account for the very small but increased incidence of GBS after flu vaccines in general, and the 1976 one in particular. The effect of biological mimicry is, by definition, dependent on how closely the molecules are similar. To the extent that different HAs from different flu viruses have slight differences in conformation, they would probably have varying degrees of mimicry, such that vaccines made from these HAs may therefore have varying ability to induce GBS. Which is compatible with the varying incidence of GBS reported after seasonal flu vaccinations in different years. (see Haber 2004, Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Influenza Vaccination)

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Government Swine Flu Advisor On Vaccine Maker Payroll

punditman says...
It is merely coincidental I am sure that the UK government’s top advisor on swine flu, Professor Sir Roy Anderson, just happens to be a sitting board member of GlaxoSmithKline to the tune of £116,000-a-year. But never mind, sheeple. Hurry and line up to get your squalene-flavoured shot! Squalene is linked to a host of serious health disorders, including Gulf War syndrome, but once again, never mind that.
-your friendly neighbourhood wingnut.

by Paul Joseph Watson

Many people seem genuinely baffled that western governments are hyping the arrival of a swine flu pandemic as if it’s the greatest threat to humanity since the bubonic plague, despite the relatively low number of deaths from the virus, unaware that the pharmaceutical industry has been intimately joined at the hip with the state for decades.

Another illustration of that fact is the revelation that one of the UK government’s top advisors on swine flu also happens to be a sitting board member of GlaxoSmithKline, the company selling dangerous and untested swine flu vaccines, as well as anti-viral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza, to the NHS.

“Professor Sir Roy Anderson sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), a 20-strong task force drawing up the action plan for the virus. Yet he also holds a £116,000-a-year post on the board of GlaxoSmithKline,” reports the Daily Mail.

We also learn that Anderson was “one of the first UK experts to call the outbreak a pandemic,” and has been busy on radio and TV pushing the effectiveness of anti-virals to fight swine flu, without telling listeners that he was on the GSK payroll.

Anderson was also a key government advisor during the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak in Britain which led to the slaughter of over 6 million animals and the complete decimation of the farming industry.

Batches of swine flu vaccine destined for Europe are being fast-tracked through safety procedures and there will be no testing on humans whatsoever before millions of people, starting with children and pregnant women, are inoculated as part of mass vaccination programs.

Keep Reading...

Canada will have enough flu vaccines to share

This morning someone from the Ontario Campers' Association was on the news saying that summer camps were safe for campers. Peacenik thought for a moment that he was watching a rerun of Jaws when the mayor of Amity refuses to close the public beach for fear of ruining the town's tourist industry.

The summer camps are a warning of what will happen when schools reopen in the fall, just when the fall flu season arrives. Will the teacher even show up for work? Do school boards have a plan? Will bus drivers show up for work? Will a vaccine be ready? Will it work? Will anyone take it? So many questions. And Peacenik has no sense that society will be ready for a new and improved swine flu pandemic tomorrow, or in the fall.

Gloria Galloway

Ottawa — From Friday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Friday, Jul. 17, 2009 09:08AM EDT

Canadians will have a better chance of getting vaccinated against the pandemic influenza than people in many other countries, including the United States and Britain, thanks to nearly a decade of planning for the disease's arrival.

“We're actually in a fairly unique position of having domestic capacity, of having planned for that in Canada now for many years,” David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer, said in an interview with The Globe and Mail Thursday.

In 2001, the federal government began a 10-year agreement with a drug company that was eventually sold to GlaxoSmithKline. That contract obligates the giant pharmaceutical manufacturer to provide vaccine to every Canadian who wants it in the event of a pandemic.

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Doctors to issue 'fast track' death certificates for swine flu

When Peacenik first started monitoring the bird flu there were fear mongering stories that the funeral industry would not be able to keep up with a surge of flu pandemic fatalities. There would not be enough caskets. There would not be enough funeral homes. There would be mass graves. Looks like doctors, in the early stages of the swine flu pandemic, can't even cope with regular death certificates. This does not bode well. Peacenik doesn't want to be buried casketless in a mass grave.

Doctors to issue 'fast track' death certificates for swine flu

Doctors are to be allowed to issue "fast-track" death certificates under Government plans to help the health system cope with the workload at the height of the swine flu pandemic.

Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer for England, confirmed the planned move in an interview on BBC's Newsnight.

"We want to try and reduce as much as possible the burden of work on doctors and we're considering all sorts of things which wil help with that," he said. "It's one of a number of things that we hope at the height of the pandemic - which we may see in the autumn and winter - will reduce the burden of paperwork for doctors."

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WHO warns of worldwide vaccine shortfall for coming flu season

Peacenik knows not everyone is a big fan of vaccines, and not everyone is a big fan of hoarding, and not everyone thinks swine flu is going to be a big problem. But this story in the Globe and Mail and similar stories in other papers are ramping up a sense of concern. School closures this fall are almost a given. And who gets the vaccine if it is available is a huge issue. A couple of weeks ago there was concern about compulsory mass innoculations. Today there is a concern about vaccine availability. If the vaccine is available. And if Peacenik had access to it. Would Peacenik take the vaccine. Peacenik doesn't like needles. But Peacenik would get innoculated. Would you?

A nurse fills needles with flu vaccine at a clinic in Victoria.

Caroline Alphonso and Gloria Galloway

Toronto and Ottawa — From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2009 05:38AM EDT

The worldwide supply of a pandemic influenza vaccine will take twice as long to manufacture and countries could have barely half of what they need for the fall's flu season if current production problems persist, the World Health Organization revealed Monday.

Canadian health authorities admitted that not everyone will receive the vaccine at the start of the flu season, as they scrambled to prioritize which groups would move to the head of the queue. Pharmaceutical manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline Inc. is under contract to produce enough vaccine for all Canadians who wish to receive it, but it's unclear how quickly the vaccine will be rolled out and even if most will be vaccinated in the event the virus returns with a vengeance this fall.

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Swine flu deaths in UK double as country now has third highest number of cases in the world

Peacenik was just reading about influenza sudden death syndrome when Peacenik came across this story from England. Peacenik finds it worrisome that the swine flu continues to spread throughout the summer, before the fall flu season arrives. Peacenik finds it worrisome that healthy people are literally dropping dead soon after getting swine flu. So while many experts thought the swine flu would burn itself out for a while, the swine flu seems to be strengthening and becoming more dangerous. Peacenik doesn't get any sense that Canada is properly prepared for a huge uptick in swine flu this fall. Peacenik says don't count on the government. Start prepping and planning. Now.

By Daniel Martin
Last updated at 9:51 AM on 10th July 2009

The number of Britons who have died after contracting swine flu has almost doubled in two days to 14, officials said yesterday.

London is days away from an epidemic with the West Midlands not far behind.

Britain has the third highest number of confirmed cases of the virus in the world, just behind Mexico - where the outbreak began.
Swine flu vaccine being prepared in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia

Swine flu vaccine being prepared in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia, will arrive in Britain in August. But the country already has more than 9,700 cases

As the shocking figures were released a leaked internal memo warned last night that the NHS is not ready to deal with a swine flu epidemic because of 'muddled' emergency plans and time-wasting bureaucracy.

A senior trust executive condemned some crisis measures as 'contradictory' and 'a complete waste of time'.

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Swine Flu Vaccine: The Race Is On

Peacenik has been reading a couple of interesting articles lately. This one by Robert Rapier asks the question: What if I'm wrong? This got Peacenik thinking about lots of what ifs. What if Peacenik is wrong about financial and societal collapse? (7 more banks were closed in the U.S. yesterday). What if Peacenik is wrong about Peak Oil? (Rapier's article discusses this possibility). What if Peacenik is wrong about swine flu?

It seems that swine flu will get more serious in the fall. It is a huge problem in Argentina right now. It is winter in Argentina. 40 percent of hospital workers are refusing to go to work right now for fear of catching the flu. And there are discussions about mass innoculations in the U.S. They are racing to make a vaccine that works. They may not have time to test it. What if Peacenik is wrong? Peacenik will put away his medical masks, and hand sanitizers, and aspirin, and Peacenik will be ready for the next pandemic. No harm done. Are you ready for swine flu? What if you are wrong?

By Daniel J. DeNoon
WebMD Health News

June 26, 2009 -- The United States is racing to make huge supplies of swine flu vaccine -- and trying to figure out who needs it most -- even as the pandemic sweeps the globe.

At least one of the five vaccine makers supplying U.S. swine flu vaccine already has bulk vaccine coming off the production line. The others soon will follow.

Clinical tests will begin within days as researchers struggle to answer basic questions about whether the vaccine works, how big a dose is needed, whether protection will take one shot or two, and whether the vaccine seems safe.

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Lethality of H1N1 Influenza Virus Increasing According to Latest Analysis of Virus Peptide Genomic Data

My,my,my. What will be the consequences of WHO declaring a pandemic later today? Peacenik and many informed scientists have been calling it a pandemic for a while. And the lethality is apparently going up. Will you change your plans because of a swine flu pandemic? If you are travelling, do you have out-of-country health insurance? Can the world economy withstand the economic impact of a pandemic? Can someone make an effective vaccine? Will you take the vaccine? Peacenik says it is time to start really thinking seriously about the swine flu. And getting prepared. And hoping that is burns itself out. Soon.
Check out www.fluwikie.com.

Update: Here is a good link to a pandemic family preparedness site.


Lethality of H1N1 Influenza Virus Increasing According to Latest Analysis of Virus Peptide Genomic Data

Boston Biotech Firm Reports First Rise in 76 Years of Replikin Count* of H1N1 Lethality Gene

BOSTON, June 10 /PRNewswire/ -- An analysis of the latest peptide genomic data for the H1N1 influenza virus indicates that the current global outbreak of H1N1 is increasing in its capacity for lethality. The new sequence data on PubMed of the past two weeks through June 10, 2009 showed an increase in the Replikin Count* of the Replikin Lethality Gene in the pB1 genomic area from a mean of 2+/-0.2 in 2008 to a mean of 3.2+/-3.7 in 2009 (p<0.001).

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WHO holding emergency flu meeting

Reuters

World Health Organisation director general Margaret Chan is holding an emergency meeting today to discuss the severity of H1N1 flu outbreaks, but no decision is expected on moving to the top level of pandemic alert, a WHO spokesman said.

"The agenda is not to decide on phase 6," WHO spokesman Fadela Chaib told a news briefing in Geneva.

"There is no timetable for WHO to go into phase 6, as you know we need to see community transmission in another WHO region and secondly to assess the severity," she said.

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Peacenik senses a lot of people have become dismissive of a possible pandemic. Despite the fact that WHO changed their definition of a pandemic just so they wouldn't have to declare one. And don't forget many countries, including the U.S., aren't even testing for swine flu. Thats right. There are many more cases than reported. Peacenik says review your preparedness. Food and water for 3 weeks. Masks, medicine, latex gloves and 500 rolls of toilet paper. Peacenik never goes anywhere now without a small emergency flu kit. You complacent? Read this story.

Swine flu: what does "so far, so good" mean?

Posted on: May 7, 2009 6:53 AM, by revere

Breathing easier, may be an apt phrase for an almost audible collective sigh of relief. So far, the incipient swine flu pandemic is not extremely nasty. Is this perhaps premature? The world's premier scientific journal, Nature, and many flu scientists, suggest it is:

Complacency, not overreaction, is the greatest danger posed by the flu pandemic. That's a message scientists would do well to help get across.

[snip]

There is ample reason for concern: a new flu virus has emerged to which humans have no immunity, and it is spreading from person to person. That has happened only three times in the past century.

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Effect Measure is one of the premier flu knowledgeable sites on the Internet along with www.fluwikie.com. Peacenik continues to monitor these sites closely. Forget the media's reaction. Did the authorities at the CDC and WHO and public health over-react to the swine flu? Peacenik doesn't think so. Read the story. Only three times in the past century has a new flu virus emerged....that humans have no immunity to.

Peacenik continues to prep. Canadian Tire has an excellent flu section selling masks, hand sanitizer, and vinyl gloves. Peacenik prefers latex gloves but the vinyl will do in a pinch.

Tomorrow Peacenik goes on a field trip to scout out someplace to SIP (stay in place). Sort of a place to bug out to when it is time to bug out. Peacenik also has some plumbing work to do in a basement where Hanta Virus may be present. Peacenik will be wearing Peacenik's mask and vinyl gloves. Is it time to bug out? When Peacenik reads stories like this Peacenik gets nervous. But for now Peacenik is not declaring it bugging out time.