Showing posts with label doomsday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label doomsday. Show all posts

5/16/09

Doomsday....times two.

May 15, 2009: White Hot Air

Ilargi: Today's a pivotal day, the entire system has started to visibly tumble in on itself, and it unfortunately takes me more time than I have right now to detail it. There's always tomorrow. But the evidence still doesn't lie.

Exchanges can rally all they want. When you see that "US prices fall most since 1955", you’re looking at something that could change rather quickly. Once you get to "US production capacity utilization lowest since records began in 1967", that is not the case. There's a lot more inertia in capacity utilization. Detroit runs at 42% of capacity, and all economic numbers except for those blurting out of Wall Street and Washington indicate that even that is nowhere near a bottom relative to actual sales.

Read on...

Disbelief Revisited Once Again

The U.S. is, in the best case scenario, entering an economic depression that will be far worse than both the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Panic of 1873. At worst, the USA will collapse altogether. I now think that the situation is actually, amazingly, worse than even this! I believe that our government is on total tilt; they have pushed trillions into the pot, and they feel now like there's no way they can fold the hand. They will, as such, print and spend TENS of TRILLIONS more in an effort to stave off depression. And in doing so they will destroy the nation.

Read on...


Peacenik says do not read these two posts if you are depressed, suffer from anxiety, have a lot of debt, feel nervous about the future, or have any neurosis of any type. Ilargi has virtually called the end of the world....doomsday. And Dan W. provides an eye-popping summary of why it is so. Is the world economy in its final death spiral? Will a growth economy miraculously re-appear? Will the bailouts suddenly start working? When the only engine of the economy is government debt the end is nigh. The U.S. is going to hire 1.3 million people to work on the 2010 census. This will distort future employment figures. But when that is the only good data point in the U.S. economy, it is hopeless. Is the economy in a death spiral? Ilargi thinks so. Dan W. thinks so. Peacenik thinks............and thinks............and thinks.

3/26/09

Japan Caught In Deflationary Spiral; Exports Plunge, Prices To Follow

Recessions have taken their toll on Asia exporters. Inquiring minds are reading Japan Exports Drop Record 49% as Global Slump Deepens.

Japan’s exports plunged a record 49.4 percent in February as deepening recessions in the U.S. and Europe sapped demand for the country’s cars and electronics.

Shipments to the U.S., the country’s biggest market, tumbled an unprecedented 58.4 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. Automobile exports slid 70.9 percent.

The collapse signals gross domestic product may shrink this quarter at a similar pace to the annualized 12.1 percent contraction posted in the previous three months, the sharpest since 1974. Prime Minister Taro Aso is compiling his third stimulus package as companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Panasonic Corp. fire thousands of workers.

Read on...

Peacenik has to confess that Peacenik had doubts this morning on the long bus ride to work. Peacenik doubted that things were going to get as bad as Peacenik has been thinking they will get. Peacenik admits that the Baltic Dry Index is up. And truck tonnage increased in February. And new home sales may have bottomed in the U.S. And Larry Kudlow said on TV that we are at the start of a new bull market. There are lots of signs. Peacenik looks for signs. Not just headlines. For example, if things were going to be very very bad, wouldn't Obama, who has access to all the data, all the information, all the secret reports, wouldn't Obama's hair be white by now? It is not. There are other small signs. Sold signs on houses. Big crowds at the Storm hockey games. Packed pubs. Maybe just maybe the bottom is in, or near.

But then Peacenik checked the news this morning. And reality started to ebb back into Peacenik's confused mind. Peacenik read this: EU presidency: US stimulus is 'the road to hell'. And Peacenik read this: IBM To Cut 5,000 Jobs In The US. And now Peacenik is back to staring into the black hole. But not without some doubts, and some hope.

3/20/09

Doomer Dinner Party - Challenge

One of my friends recently joked that we should have a Doomer Dinner Party - a meal made only of our preserved foods, food storage, and what is currently growing in the garden. Food storage + party? = a great idea in my book! Of course, in the spirit of Transition Towns it should probably have some sort of upbeat, positive name - like New Opportunities Dinner Party or Support Local Food Dinner Party, but I think Doomer Dinner Party is catchy and funny, so I'll stick with that name.

This is basically a variation on the theme of "Prep Practice", when a family shuts off the breakers and pretends no gas is available... but with guests. I think it would be fun to get together and have some peak chat, swap recipes and discuss how we can help each other and our community. I want to do it!

Read on...

By golly does this sound like fun or what? Peacenik is going to start studying, and practising and planning. Peacenik has a wide window cell that gets lots of sun. Peacenik is going to plant some food. If Peacenik ever gets invited to a Doomer Dinner Party, Peacenik will be prepared. Now if only Peacenik knew some doomers. Have a good weekend.

3/9/09

Buffett: Economy "has fallen off a cliff."

by CalculatedRisk on 3/09/2009 08:51:00 AM

Warren Buffett is on CNBC this morning ...

From the CNBC live blog, a few Buffett comments:

6:05a: Economy is "close to the worst case." Can't imagine it being much worse ... The economy "has fallen off a cliff."

Read on...

Peacenik thinks this will spook the markets. Big Time. The ticking of the Doomsday Clock is getting louder and louder. Peacenik is going to the ATM on Peacenik's coffee break and getting some CASH out of the bank. Peacenik hopes Peacenik is not too late. When the collapse happens, if it happens, it will be fast. When you hear on the news that there is a run on the bank.....it is too late. Tick. Tick. Tick.

2/16/09

Decade at Bernie's

by PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 15, 2009

By now everyone knows the sad tale of Bernard Madoff’s duped investors. They looked at their statements and thought they were rich. But then, one day, they discovered to their horror that their supposed wealth was a figment of someone else’s imagination.

Unfortunately, that’s a pretty good metaphor for what happened to America as a whole in the first decade of the 21st century.

Last week the Federal Reserve released the results of the latest Survey of Consumer Finances, a triennial report on the assets and liabilities of American households. The bottom line is that there has been basically no wealth creation at all since the turn of the millennium: the net worth of the average American household, adjusted for inflation, is lower now than it was in 2001.

Read on...

Peacenik is thinking some people think Peacenik is a Doomsdayer. Particularly after Doomers made the front page of Sunday's Toronto Star and Peacenik sometimes uses the language of Doomers. But as Peacenik said, Peacenik just reads the news and comments. Here we have Krugman again talking about the illusory surge in asset values over the last decade. And the simutaneous real surge in personal and corporate debt. Peacenik asks everyone to read Dan's post at theautomaticearth. Everyone is broke. Every state. Every city. Every town. Every business. And every individual. Peacenik asks the reader to just scroll through Illargi's post at theautomaticearth. Read the red headlines. GM and California and Ireland and Latvia will probaby declare bankruptcy this coming week. Peacenik read the headlines. Peacenik thinks this is the worst economy anyone living has ever seen. Imagine that. The financial industry has created more debt than the world's GDP. Banks, pension plans and countries are broke. These are facts. Does that make Peacenik a Doomer?

1/31/09

Black Swan author's rules for living

Nicholas Taleb, gadfly author of The Black Swan, gives his 10 rules for surviving an unpredictable world with dignity."

1 Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

2 Go to parties. You can’t even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.

3 It’s not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.

Peacenik is starting to get freaked out by Punditman's doomsday posts fluffed up with bits of feel good optimism. If Punditman keeps this up, Peacenik is going to jump out of his basement apartment window. Peacenik can't take much more. However Peacenik came across some simple rules for surviving. Surviving everyday life. Surviving going to work every day. And surviving Punditman turning into a doomer. Nassim Taleb is the author of the Black Swan. A Black Swan is a major event that comes as a complete suprise. Sort of like the global financial meltdown. September 11 was a Black Swan event. Tonight Peacenik will follow rule 2, inspite of mild agoraphobia. Peacenik will face Punditman. Face to Face. And Peacenik will survive.

1/24/09

Unprecedented Crisis In US, UK, Australia, Europe

Today was like most any day in recent memory: Another day, Another day of grim news.

In the US, President Obama is struggling to cope with an "unprecedented crisis", regulators closed Centennial Bank in California, Freddie Mac is asking for more cash, and 30 year bonds are getting shellacked.

Overseas, French and Flemish governments are intervening in the markets, the UK is shrinking at the fastest pace since 1980, and Australia needs action to save jobs. Rounding up the grim news, 1.2 million corporate networks have become infected with worms that attack Microsoft Corp.’s Windows operating system.

Here are the grim details.

Read on...

Peacenik just received an email from one of his regular correspondents reporting anecdotally that all was well with the local economy: mall busy, store shelves full, pubs packed, people happy. Then Peacenik went to Mish's website to read his overview of the "unprecedented crisis". How does Peacenik reconcile the two different points of view? Peacenik is reminded that institutions and individuals frequently engage in profligate behaviour just before they explode. Thus, Thain, the Wall St. CEO redecorated his office the week before he was fired. Penniless hobos will find six dollars on the street and buy a pint of beer rather than a bag of rice. Peacenik thinks Mish and his correspondent are telling the same story. There will be denial and the illusion of prosperity. Then it will end.

12/8/08

Debt Rattle, December 8 2008: Thinking about a thousand year depression

GliderGuider: A comment by a reader at The Automatic Earth has me ruminating this morning:
Cyclical terms like “recession” and “depression” are looking less appropriate by the day. It’s like calling the period between the fall of Rome and the Renaissance a “depression”.

I know the our situation is vastly different from the state of the world in Roman times, but the idea that we could be on the brink of a fundamental reset of civilization is intriguing, to say the least.

I've been convinced for several years that we are looking at the convergence of a set of wicked interlocking global problems -- ecological problems (climate chaos, the death of the oceans, fresh water shortages etc.), energy shortages due to fossil fuel depletion, and overpopulation with the resulting pressure on the global food supply. This convergence is happening under the umbrella of the current global financial collapse that constrains our ability to respond to any of these problems individually, let alone any further problems that might emerge from interactions between them.

Read on...

When Peacenik started posting doomsday articles there were many doubters. What seemed fanciful in August seems like the good old days today. Is it possible? GliderGuider makes it sound not only possible but probable. Today the Chicago Tribune declared bankruptcy. All those leveraged buyouts by private equity firms don't seem likes such a good idea now. And there were thousands of them, all designed to rape the companies of value for the benefit of a few. It is all coming apart now. But Peacenik is optimistic. It won't be the worst case scenario. And once things do start to turn as most business cycles do, there may be a chance to rebuild a better society from the ashes of this one. Hows that for upbeat?

11/6/08

"Personal Survival Skills: Life at the Twlight of Empire

By Michelle Fealk, Adriana Guillen, Colin Peacock, Sarah Rios, and two anonymous contributors

We are a small group of students with diverse backgrounds and life goals. We began this journey relatively uninformed about the impacts of peak oil and other end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenarios, and our opinions differ as to how accurate or biased those scenarios are. But we share a common interest in personal survival as the chance of civilization collapsing increases, and we wish to share our newly accumulated knowledge with others who are similarly concerned about their own futures.

This report is intended to serve as a guide along the path we have, thankfully, already trodden and worn down, along with several thousand scientists, conspiracy-theory crackpots, and average frustrated chumps as we have come up against a world in turmoil. Specifically, we face an ambiguous future in a world that grows increasingly dependent on oil even as global supplies fall.

After yesterday's doomsday article by Ilargi Peacenik thought that Peacenik should offer up something useful and upbeat. A survival guide. Enjoy.

10/3/08

Financial and Corporate System is in Cardiac Arrest: The Risk of the Mother of All Bank Runs

Nouriel Roubini Oct 3, 2008

It is now clear that the US financial system - and now even the system of financing of the corporate sector - is now in cardiac arrest and at a risk of a systemic financial meltdown. I don’t use these words lightly but at this point we have reached the final 12th step of my February paper on “The Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown: 12 Steps to a Financial Disaster” (Step 9 or the collapse of the major broker dealers has already widely occurred).

Yesterday Thursday a senior market practitioner in a major financial institution wrote to me the following:

Situation Report: So far as I can tell by working the telephones this morning:

LIBOR bid only, no offer. Commercial paper market shut down, little trading and no issuance. Corporations have no access to long or short term credit markets -- hence they face massive rollover problems. Brokers are increasingly not dealing with each other. Even the inter-bank market is ceasing up.

Read on...

This Roubini article is very scary reading. Peacenik doesn't think doomsday is funny. Roubini thinks today may be doomsday. Peacenik is looking forward to the weekend. Have a good one.