Vultch USA

Yes the bailed out banks of Wall Street are rolling in dough. The bonus pool this year will be the biggest ever. The DOW is over 10,000. And real estate in Canada is still blowing a big bubble.

Garth, who just decided not to run for the liberals in the next election, thinks the Canadian bubble is just about to pop. Read his numbers. Its hard to disagree. Peacenik doesn't.

by Garth Turner

October 14th, 2009 —

Toll of the loonie:
Manufacturing takes a big dive.

There are 7,952 houses for sale in Jacksonville. That Florida city has a population of about 820,000 and an average temperature of 76 degrees.

By way of contrast, the GTA has 15,984 properties currently for sale and 5.5 million people living on the north shore of Lake Ontario. This week the average temperature is 7 Celsius. I mean, what’s to compare?

Other than this: There’s one house for sale in Jacksonville for every 100 people. In Toronto, there’s only one active listing for every 345 residents. And, given the laws of supply and demand, you’d expect real estate to cost more in Toronto, even if the climate sucks. And they both do.

Read on...

Party like it’s 2007

The argument always seems to be that things won't be as bad in Canada as they will be in the U.S. Who is pushing that meme? Not Peacenik. California has collapsed and California has a smaller deficit than Canada, and a bigger economy. Credit Card payments in Canada are now more in arrears than they are in the U.S. The U.S. is Canada's number one trading partner. The automotive industry in Canada is about to become extinct. Peacenik is hanging on, hoping Peacenik can have a summer vacation before.... what? Peacenik is hoping Punditman isn't reading these posts while Punditman is on vacation. Punditman would be disturbed.

by Garth Turner

I swear. Some days.

Commodities tanked Monday, taking the stock market with them. Serious doubts are rising about the reality of a broad-based global recovery. Merrill’s new hot-shot girl economist (HSGE) rattled Bay Street with a warning Canada’s economy will likely swoon again after it plumps a little. Thirty-six people have died from swine flu in this country. Lots more to come with unknown economic consequences of a new pandemic. And Ottawa’s budget cop is warning us the feds are walking us into huge jobs losses and $156 billion of new deficits over the next five years.

So what topped local newscasts in Toronto, Edmonton and Vancouver?

Read on...

Part deux

Yes, as Peacenik drives, and walks, and jogs, and bikes around the streets of Guelph, Peacenik sees lots of sold signs on houses. Some houses seem to sell very fast. Is the real estate market in Guelph in good health? At a glance it appears to be. But what happens to all the happy homeowners when interest rates go up a percent or two? What happens if a two spouse income becomes a one spouse income? What happens when its time to renew your mortgage?

Garth think a new bubble is being pumped up. No document loans. 100% financing. The government is so desperate to avoid reality that they are encouraging the same reckless behaviour that got us to the edge of the finanical abyss. How are all the out of work auto supply employees, and out of work Chrysler and GM employees paying their mortgages? With unemployment insurance? With credit cards? Peacenik says this housing bubble is leaking air....at a terminal rate. phzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Part deux

by Garth Turner

Is this blog a fraud? A brave anonymous poster suggested as much a day or two ago. People were “duped” into coming, he said, expecting the dirt on a real estate crash that never came. Obviously the guy is a wannabe vulture, hot to pick on the bones of the previous greater fool.

So, what happened to the bust?

The latest realtor numbers, trumpeted from its deathbed by the MSM, are sizzling. May prices hit the highest point in history – an average of $319,700, which means prices have rebounded by 16% in the last five months. Of course, the average number is inflated by sales activity in some of the country’s pricier markets, including a big condo dump in the Lower Mainland. A more meaningful median price was not provided.

Read on...