June 17, 2009: 40 ways to lose your future

Peacenik wasn't going to take any recreational reading into the wilderness because Peacenik is going to be busy cutting firewood, harvesting leeks, picking mushrooms, and fishing. But this list from Stoneleigh is something that Peacenik can ponder while the mushrooms cook over an open fire. This is something everyone can ponder. If only some of Stoneliegh's 40 points are valid it is very bad news. Have a good weekend.

Stoneleigh: People have been asking how we see the future unfold. In case you wonder what we stand for, much of our view of what's to come can be found in the primers on the right-hand side bar. Here is an additional brief summary (in no particular order and not meant to be exhaustive) of the ground we have consistently covered here at TAE over the last year and a half, and before that elsewhere.

1. Deflation is inevitable due to Ponzi dynamics (see From the Top of the Great Pyramid)
   
2. The collapse of credit will crash the money supply as credit is the vast majority of the effective money supply
   
3. Cash will be king for a long time

Read on...

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Since the economy began sliding downhill in late 2007, mainstream economic and market experts have consistently erred on the sunny side.

As late as June 2008, mainstream consensus held that the U.S. was heading for a “soft landing” and would avoid recession. Several months later, the slump was acknowledged to have started in January 2008, but we were supposed to see renewed growth by mid-2009, with unemployment peaking in the eight-to-nine percent range. A quick “shovel-ready” stimulus bag was supposed to set us back on the road to prosperity.

In January, recovery projections were pushed forward to late 2009. Today, the consensus is for a mid-2010 recovery, with unemployment peaking at just over 10 percent. Clearly, the mainstream has struggled to catch up to reality for well over one year. What are the chances that they finally have it right this time?

Read on...

With all the happy talk and irrational exuberance going on in the financial press and in the markets, Peacenik thinks its time for a splash of cold water. A bit of reality. Read the ten predictions in this article from Seeking Alpha. Many of these predictions are highly probable. If just one comes true the world as we know it is over. Peacenik hates to keep repeating Peacenik's self but the black hole of debt cannot be ignored.