7/28/09

Boiling The Frog: Nuclear Optimism Hides True Costs Till It's Too Late

Peacenik remembers all the advertising about heating your house for pennies a day. Now of course electric furnaces are an albatross for anyone trying to sell a house that has one. And all that cheap hydro? Taxpayers are on the hook for billions. Peacenik thinks those costs are cleverly hidden as legacy costs on Peacenik's hydro bill.

So now the world is facing peak oil. And hydro generated electricity is all tapped out. And natural gas is running out. So the Dick Cheneys of the world want nuclear energy. But the Dick Cheneys of the world want the nuclear industry to be fully subsidized by the taxpayer and ratepayer. The numbers don't add up. Peacenik is stocking up on solar lights so that Peacenik will still be able to read when the lights go out. What are you doing?

by Craig A. Severance



There is a well-known story about how to boil a frog. If you try to throw a frog into a pot already boiling, he'll jump out. However, put a frog into a pot and slowly raise the temperature -- and you get frog legs for dinner.

The nuclear power industry seems to be pursuing this strategy, slowly releasing ever higher cost estimates for new nuclear power plants. If the public does not realize the true costs of a new nuclear plant, the industry can obtain political support for the Federal loan guarantees it needs. After the taxpayers are on the hook and a nuclear project is already underway, the full costs will become clear.

At that point, however, it may be too late for taxpayers and utility ratepayers to jump out.

The Frog Jumps: The Ontario Story. Last week the Ontario government put plans to build 2 new next-generation reactors on hold, after it received bids "more than three times higher than what the Province expected to pay", according to a story in the Toronto Star. The only "compliant" bid -- one where the supplier would be sufficiently at risk if costs exceeded the amount quoted -- was reportedly a $26 billion quote from Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd, equal to roughly $10,800 per kW. (If this sounds familiar, recall my January 2009 study estimated a new nuclear project would most likely cost approximately $10,500/kW).

Read on...