1/6/09

Reflections On 2008, Themes For 2009

2008 may best be remembered as the year most would like to forget.

Sure there were some highlights that nearly everyone will remember fondly such as the opening ceremony of the Olympics in China, and for Democrats the election of Barrack Obama, the first black president in history, but otherwise there were slim pickings, especially on the economic side.

2008 brought a continuation of the housing crash, massive foreclosures, rising unemployment, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the bankruptcy of Lehman, a $700 billion bailout that most citizens were against, fear mongering by Bush and Paulson to get the bailout bill passed, a ponzi scheme right under the nose of the SEC by Madoff that wiped out as much as $50 billion, hundreds of mortgage lenders imploding, and a stock market crash that was down as much as 51% finishing the year at -38.5%.

Peacenik likes Mish's take on the inflation/deflation dilemma. If you have mutual funds you are already screwed. If you have a 5% GIC coming due next week what should you do? Mish is in the deflation camp. Mish doesn't see hyper-inflation as a risk. Peacenik thinks Mish would say take 3.9% and stay short. But Peacenik doesn't know. What would Brian Burke do?