I know I sometimes go for hyperbole in headlines, but the statement above is accurate. Your humble blogger had expected China (and presumably the rest of Asian) trade to fall in January and February from already depressed levels. While the drop in Chinese exports for December was less than experts expected (imports fell more sharply than anticipated, however), the trajectory down appears to be steepening, as we had feared.
From the Telegraph (hat tip reader John O):
"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit igated disaster."
Shipping journal Lloyd's List said brokers in Singapore are now waiving fees for containers travelling from South China, charging only for the minimal "bunker" costs. Container fees from North Asia have dropped $200, taking them below operating cost.
Peacenik has been talking about the Baltic Dry Index for a while. The BDI and shipping rates are the arcane canaries in mineshafts that can't be ignored. The old global economy depended on growth. Growth is finished. Can the world adapt to a no growth future? Is Ron Wilson a bad coach? Peacenik doesn't know the answer to either question. But no shipping will mean no groceries on the shelves; no shipping will mean no brand new $300 made-in-China carbon hockey sticks each time some NHLer breaks one and misses an open net in overtime in an untelevised game in front of an empty arena. Oh well, Cliff Fletcher is a great Canadian.
