Nouriel Roubini, 01.15.09, 12:01 AM EST
Forecasting pain, from the U.S. to Australia.
With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing (growth well below potential), I expect global growth to be flat (around -0.5%) in 2009.
This will be the worst global recession in decades as the fallout of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression took a toll first on the U.S. and then--via a variety of channels--on the rest of the global economy.
Here is a global breakdown of my forecast.
Read on...
Peacenik was wrong. The stock markets didn't have a good week, but they also didn't collapse. In fact Friday morning the Dow and TSX are up slightly. But given the financial news this week it is tough to be optimist that the markets are going to rally much in the near future. In fact Roubini is calling the present modest rally a suckers rally. So as we head into the weekend Peacenik gives you Dr. Doom himself and his forecast. It is not good. If you want a good primer on why the bailouts will not work check out Dan's post at theautomaticearth. Have a good weekend.
Forecasting pain, from the U.S. to Australia.
With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing (growth well below potential), I expect global growth to be flat (around -0.5%) in 2009.
This will be the worst global recession in decades as the fallout of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression took a toll first on the U.S. and then--via a variety of channels--on the rest of the global economy.
Here is a global breakdown of my forecast.
Read on...
Peacenik was wrong. The stock markets didn't have a good week, but they also didn't collapse. In fact Friday morning the Dow and TSX are up slightly. But given the financial news this week it is tough to be optimist that the markets are going to rally much in the near future. In fact Roubini is calling the present modest rally a suckers rally. So as we head into the weekend Peacenik gives you Dr. Doom himself and his forecast. It is not good. If you want a good primer on why the bailouts will not work check out Dan's post at theautomaticearth. Have a good weekend.
