It is obvious that the current financial crisis is becoming more severe in spite of the Treasury rescue plan (or maybe because of it as this plan it totally flawed). The severe strains in financial markets (money markets, credit markets, stock markets, CDS and derivative markets) are becoming more severe rather than less severe in spite of the nuclear option (after the Fannie and Freddie $200 billion bazooka bailout failed to restore confidence) of a $700 billion package: interbank spreads are widening (TED spread, swap spreads, Libo-OIS spread) and are at level never seen before; credit spreads (such as junk bond yield spreads relative to Treasuries are widening to new peaks; short-term Treasury yields are going back to near zero levels as there is flight to safety; CDS spread for financial institutions are rising to extreme levels (Morgan Stanley ones at 1200 last week) as the ban on shorting of financial stock has moved the pressures on financial firms to the CDS market; and stock markets around the world have reacted very negatively to this rescue package (US market are down about 3% this morning at their opening).
Let me explain now in more detail why we are now back to the risk of a total systemic financial meltdown...
It is Tuesday morning and the markets are bouncing back a bit, without the bailout. Roubini wrote the above before the bailout failed. Roubini's view is scary. Peacenik thinks some kind of bailout will occur this week, but Peacenik is not entirely optimistic that the bailout is the solution. It's funny how this financail crisis is dominating the news, even wiping speculation about a Sundin signing out of the media. Bailout fails. Leafs win. All is well.
