punditman says... As we look ahead to a new year, this video provides some interesting insights as to what is happening with the US economy. This guy Howard Davidowitz seems to have a good handle on some core economic indicators. I'm not sure about his ideology; perhaps Peacenik can chime in here since I originally found this on the Automatic Earth website.
At any rate, it is true that retail sales were up this year at Christmas time. But why? Well, 30% of consumers are currently responsible for retail sales and these did much better this year because of the strength of capital markets. So this means the luxury retail area -- just lawyers, bankers and CEOs out having some fun holiday shopping. Meanwhile, unemployment went up! In fact there is 18.5% unemployment and underemployment in the US.
The fact is, consumers have no money and those that do are paying off debt more than they are spending. Yes, some folks are doing better (the rich). But the commercial real estate crisis is not over; in fact, unsurprisingly, the future in the retail sector is online. Malls are no longer being built. What are they going to do with all that space? The death of the shopping mall would not necessarily be a bad thing. That is, if you factor in the death of suburbia, peak oil, climate change...
