5/26/09

Why Are Long-Term Rates Going Up? Maybe Lenders Think We're Screwed

Henry Blodget|May. 25, 2009, 9:48 AM

The whole world is deflating, but long-term interest rates are moving up. (See the chart for the 10-yr Treasury at right). Why?

Tim Geithner thinks it's because traders are recognizing that the economy's beginning to recover

That's one happy theory. And it's possible (fingers crossed). But here are two less-happy theories:

Read on...

Peacenik has been browsing the news this morning. In the Globe and Mail there is a story about Flaherty not revealing the extent of the federal deficit. WTF? Peacenik guesses it must be big. And in Haaretz, Netanyahu is threatening Iran again. Yawn. Should Peacenik yawn at this threat? GM is on the verge of bankruptcy. Who cares? Standard and Poor's just warned Britain about downgrading Britain's credit rating. So what? Foreclosures in the U.S.A continues at a record pace.....zzzzzzzzzzzz . There are lots of stories about the growing threat of inflation. Boring. And the yield on 10-year U.S treasuries jumped 33 basis points in the past week. What dat? Obama said the U.S. was out of money. Who isn't?

Is there a trend in all this news? Peacenik doesn't see one. But Peacenik senses something. Something disquieting. Bad news is losing its punch. The sheeple are becoming inured to bad news. Society no longer seems to distinguish between good news and bad news. The stock market is just as apt to rise on bad news as on good news. Tons of really bad news is just ignored. Peacenik wonders why this is so. Peacenik wonders if this is bad. Bad news is losing its impact. That is bad news. Very bad news...I think.