Cuts through fog, exposes lies, and helps unravel the Media-Industrial-Military-Financial complex. These posts are meant to inform, enlighten, enable, and make you laugh, cry, do the right thing, etc.
7/13/09
How did Dr. David Kelly die?
The myth of the "surge"

The surge had two main goals. The first goal was to bring the level of violence down by increasing U.S. force levels in key areas, forging a tactical alliance with cooperative Sunni groups, and shifting to a counterinsurgency strategy that emphasized population protection. This aspect of the surge succeeded, though it is still hard to know how much of the progress was due to increased force levels and improved tactics and how much was due to other developments, such as the prior "ethnic cleansing" that had separated the contending groups.
The second and equally important goal was to promote political reconciliation among the competing factions in Iraq. This goal was not achieved, and the consequences of that failure are increasingly apparent. What lies ahead is a long-delayed test of strength between the various contending groups, until a new formula for allocating political power emerges. That formula has been missing since before the United States invaded -- that is, Washington never had a plausible plan for reconstructing a workable Iraqi state once it dismantled Saddam's regime -- and it will be up to the Iraqi people to work it out amongst themselves. It won’t be pretty.
Keep Reading...
Anecdotal Observations and Utter Conjecture
Punditman is back from his holiday and his partial media blackout, and to his total amazement the world is still chalk full of problems. I guess ignoring stuff doesn't make it go away. My God, even Dick Cheney is back in the news, with more of his crimes being exposed.
Back in May, Peacenik speculated that the lack of mosquitoes on his sojourn into the wilderness meant that the total collapse of the food chain was imminent. Punditman can attest to the fact that this was utter conjecture and has many bug bites to prove it. However, one thing that punditman has noticed is that his allergies occurred later this year. And they are worse. Punditman had allergies as a kid, but he had thought he had largely out grown these seasonal annoyances. Usually Punditman gets a little allergic during June and then his aversion to ragweed and pollen and grass cuttings goes away. Punditman can't recall being this allergic in July since he was a little tyke.
On top of that, we have thus far had a very cool summer (Global Warming deniers always make hay out of any unseasonably cold spells). Even though Punditman wasn't particularly hot, Punditman went swimming while at the cottage. A fellow wader bitched about the cold summer, commenting, "Global Warming? Bring it on, I say."
What does it all mean? Punditman has been developing a theory lately, as follows: the seasons seem to be pushing forwards. But first, Punditman must point out that apparently Spring is arriving early lately, as this study indicates, which blows Punditman's theory away before he even gets started. But since this is punditman's blog, punditman will ruminate anyways. If Spring is so damn early, why has punditman freezed punditman's buttox off in late May the past few years at kid's soccer games? Sorry, Spring seems late as of late, at least when it comes to temperature. Meanwhile, summer (for what it's worth lately), does seem to go well past labour day doesn't it?
Then there is the famed Canadian winter. I seem to recall skating outdoors long before January in years past. Not anymore. Yet winter (by that I mean snow and ice and cold, not the sucky assed rain and drizel and haze that passes for early winter lately), keeps on chugging along well into where Spring should be ("When will it end"?) Not by April, that's for sure. Of course Punditman could be completely wrong and delusional. Conventional global warming theory has it that overall, summers are getting hotter and longer and winters are getting wetter, warmer and shorter. Of course there are lots of other theories out there too.
Another anecdotal question: are we experiencing more extreme, abrupt changes in temperature, rather than a gradual turning of the seasons, like Punditman recalls from Punditman's youth?
Punditman wonders if "climate change" is a more accurate term than global warming. Punditman is not a scientist and thus has nothing to back up his anecdotal observations. To be clear, for Punditman, anthropomorphic global warming, is not even a question and it would be nice if we could move on from there, but not everyone agrees, including some that Punditman admires when they write about other things, like radical writer Alex Cockburn (surprisingly) over at Counterpunch.org.
So why did Peacenik not get any mosquitoe bites back in June? Why does Punditman have allergies in July? Geez, Punditman's head is swirling and he is starting to sound like an economist! Something is messing with Punditman's head.
Tuna, Toilet paper, and Timing
When Peacenik read about Wave 3 being on its way, Peacenik's thoughts immediately turned to planning for the consequences of Wave 3. Peacenik already has a portable toilet. Peacenik already has some supplies. Then Peacenik read this article about intergenerational equity. Peacenik has never thought (Peacenik thinks) about intergenerational equity before. But Peacenik finds it reassuring that someone is thinking about it. Maybe there will be a way forward. After Wave 3.
by Nate Hagens
Concern about global resource depletion, at least in certain circles, is generating individual hoarding behavior - I don't know how prevalent this is, the potential advantages it will ultimately confer, or any of the subtleties of the'must have' list. This brief Campfire essay is a (somewhat disjointed) exploration of the short term translation of financial capital into basic goods, from the perspective of long term timing and social trajectories. (I expect it will generate some good discussion, especially following Luis' piece on Sustainability)
Is the Bear Market's Most Violent Decline Right Around the Corner?
Is the Bear Market's Most Violent Decline Right Around the Corner?
7/10/2009 11:00:00 AM
Is the most powerful of all waves right around the corner?
The short answer is "YES."
The long answer will help you anticipate where and when
First, let's describe wave 3.
If wave 3 was a superhero, he'd probably be The Flash (though he could be The Hulk).
Like The Flash, there's no mistaking wave 3's characteristics:
* It gets to where it's going in a hurry.
* It usually catches everyone by surprise, and
* You'll know it when you see it.
Read on...
7/10/09
Busted
by Garth Turner

My, my. Could I be wrong? Just a bearded broken-down piece of meat? (If you saw ‘The Wrestler’ imagine me now with flowing blonde locks, a bursting heart and tights.)
After all, my words of caution to those people rushing into real estate deals seem to be falling on deaf ears. According to the MSM, we are on the cusp of recovery and hot property is all the proof necessary. So, this week’s new housing report was heralded as wonderful news, even though starts are down by a third nationally, and have been squished by half in Ontario. Big Bank economists have been lining up at microphones, saying since car and house sales are the first things to crash when recession hits, it makes sense they’ll soar when recovery noses out of the earth.
But, car sales are still dismal. The preponderance of real estate sales are to inexperienced buyers. And today’s jobs report shows the economy’s still a dangerous thing. But, whadda I know?
Read on...
Swine flu deaths in UK double as country now has third highest number of cases in the world
By Daniel Martin
Last updated at 9:51 AM on 10th July 2009
The number of Britons who have died after contracting swine flu has almost doubled in two days to 14, officials said yesterday.
London is days away from an epidemic with the West Midlands not far behind.
Britain has the third highest number of confirmed cases of the virus in the world, just behind Mexico - where the outbreak began.
Swine flu vaccine being prepared in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia
Swine flu vaccine being prepared in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia, will arrive in Britain in August. But the country already has more than 9,700 casesAs the shocking figures were released a leaked internal memo warned last night that the NHS is not ready to deal with a swine flu epidemic because of 'muddled' emergency plans and time-wasting bureaucracy.
A senior trust executive condemned some crisis measures as 'contradictory' and 'a complete waste of time'.
Read on...
Tehran Street Photos – “The Genie is Out of the Bottle”
Here are some pics from Iran. Looks like the protests may not be over. Here is the link to more pics. Peacenik
by Al Rodgers
Thu Jul 09, 2009 at 02:53:43 PM PDT


7/9/09
Miss Obama's peacenik T-shirt sends a message to G8 leaders
Peacenik posts this story without comment.
By Charlotte Spratt
Last updated at 9:35 AM on 09th July 2009
Her father had just won agreement from the Russians to cut back on the world's stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
And Barack Obama's eldest daughter was obviously keen to make her own statement on the issue - even if it was merely a fashion statement.
Read on...
The Economic Free Fall Is Over
The Economic Free Fall Is Over
Gloom and doom is the way of blogs lately. Nothing is good; everything is bad. Unfortunately, lost in this translation is a set of monthly trends that shows the worse is over. Now -- this does not mean everything is roses. Far from it. As I have mentioned in the past the recovery will be weak with slow growth and high (7%-8% minimum) unemployment for the better part of a year. But the data indicates the worse is behind us.
Before I begin, let me make a few observations.
1.) There are two predominant ways to present economic data: year over year and month over month. Year over year removes seasonality. Here's an illustration. Suppose you are looking at the retail sector's employment trends starting in September and you see in increase in hiring. A logical conclusion is things are looking up because companies are hiring more. However, this excludes the possibility of a seasonal effect; namely that retail typically hires more people as the holiday season approaches. As a result, it's better to compare this September to last September -- this removes "seasonality" from the equation.
Read on...
