punditman says:
It sure looks like all the pieces in the puzzle are falling into place. Is it too late to awaken people from their stupor?
by The Canadian
The facts:
1. Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) have been spotted by the British on at least three occasions crossing the southern Iran/Iraq border nearest Basra and deploying spec. troops. On the Iranian side are the bulk of Iran's Province of Khuzestan's oil fields. These oil fields would be prime targets in the event of a U.S.-led invasion. The IRG specialist troops have the task of attacking communications, command, control, and intelligence facilities, and causing general chaos in the event of war.
When the Roman Empire was collapsing, the Emperor decided to avert the Mobs' attention by holding a year's worth of fantastic games and slaughters in the Coliseum.
Meanwhile the Barbarians were on the border.
2. Iran has rationed fuel to its population causing riots and discontent which have been widely reported in world media.
3. Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has dramatically escalated his socialist policies, and actually nationalized all of the Orinoco production facilities, where large US oil and gas companies have literally billions invested in infrastructure.
4. Hamas has taken over the Gaza strip.
5. Hez b'Allah have begun aggressively reasserting itself in Lebanon.
6. Syria has significantly bolstered its troops and moved these troops closer to the Golan Heights much as they did prior to war in '73 (Yom Kippur).
7. Turkey has massed more than 50,000 troops on the northern Iraq border against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Note, however, that NW Iran borders SE Turkey.
8. The Arab Gulf States have openly declared they are preparing/prepared for a U.S./Iran conflict this Summer.
9. Significant U.S. politicians are openly advocating war with Iran. These war advocates are Republicans, however, no voice of dissent is being heard from the Democrats.
10. Anti-Iranian propaganda is in full-swing of late.
11. The largest naval armada assembled off the coast of Iran since the 2003 Iraq war commenced is assembled and waiting. A 4th US Carrier fleet will secure the Suez.
12. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is full.
13. Next round of U.N. sanctions are on the way.
14. Politicians on all sides of this conflict have a vested political interest in war as a means of political survival. They are all hard-liners.
15. Moscow has released nuclear fuel to Iran for the Bushehr reactor.
16. Israel has recently and successfully launched its Ofeq-7 spy imaging satellite which gives it a great view of Iran (amongst others).
Conclusion: War is close.
Understanding that Iran is oil rich, but refinery poor, it is still quite an unusual event for them to ration petrol. They knew that it would cause public discontent and would be covered widely in world media. Despite the embarrassing news of riots, Iran knows that rationing petrol is a strategic preparation for war.
A military cannot function without petrol. And Venezuela's Chavez knows he cannot supply Iran, but he can help starve the U.S. of oil (but not for long ...)
The Canadian
