By Richard CohenTuesday, January 13, 2009; Page A15
The French have the comely Marianne, the British have the fetching Britannia, and we have the welcoming Lady Liberty. May I now suggest, at least for the duration of the current recession, a new feminine emblem of our times: Marvene Halterman of Avondale, Ariz. At age 61, after 13 years of uninterrupted unemployment and at least as many years of living on welfare, she got a mortgage.
She got that mortgage less than two years ago. She got it even though at one time she had 23 people living in the house (576 square feet, one bath) and some ramshackle outbuildings. She got it for $103,000, an amount that far exceeded the value of the house. The place has since been condemned.
Read on...
If you're having trouble understanding how the world's finanical system got sucked into a black hole of derivative debt, this is a fairly readable explanation. This is why almost every financial institution in North America is bankrupt. Peacenik read a bunch of financial news yesterday and early today. It is all bleak. It is all bad. The only thing that will prevent Peacenik's prognostication about the markets from coming true is the small chance that there will be a small rally because of Obama's inauguration. A small short rally.
1/13/09
1/12/09
Israel Is Committing War Crimes: Hamas's violations are no justification for Israel's actions
By GEORGE E. BISHARAT
Israel's current assault on the Gaza Strip cannot be justified by self-defense. Rather, it involves serious violations of international law, including war crimes. Senior Israeli political and military leaders may bear personal liability for their offenses, and they could be prosecuted by an international tribunal, or by nations practicing universal jurisdiction over grave international crimes. Hamas fighters have also violated the laws of warfare, but their misdeeds do not justify Israel's acts.
The United Nations charter preserved the customary right of a state to retaliate against an "armed attack" from another state. The right has evolved to cover nonstate actors operating beyond the borders of the state claiming self-defense, and arguably would apply to Hamas. However, an armed attack involves serious violations of the peace. Minor border skirmishes are common, and if all were considered armed attacks, states could easily exploit them -- as surrounding facts are often murky and unverifiable -- to launch wars of aggression. That is exactly what Israel seems to be currently attempting.
Israel had not suffered an "armed attack" immediately prior to its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. Since firing the first Kassam rocket into Israel in 2002, Hamas and other Palestinian groups have loosed thousands of rockets and mortar shells into Israel, causing about two dozen Israeli deaths and widespread fear. As indiscriminate attacks on civilians, these were war crimes. During roughly the same period, Israeli forces killed about 2,700 Palestinians in Gaza by targeted killings, aerial bombings, in raids, etc., according to the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem.
Keep Reading...
punditman says...
Notably, this appears in the Wall Street Journal. A chink in the armour of mainstream media orthodoxy, perhaps?
Israel's current assault on the Gaza Strip cannot be justified by self-defense. Rather, it involves serious violations of international law, including war crimes. Senior Israeli political and military leaders may bear personal liability for their offenses, and they could be prosecuted by an international tribunal, or by nations practicing universal jurisdiction over grave international crimes. Hamas fighters have also violated the laws of warfare, but their misdeeds do not justify Israel's acts.
The United Nations charter preserved the customary right of a state to retaliate against an "armed attack" from another state. The right has evolved to cover nonstate actors operating beyond the borders of the state claiming self-defense, and arguably would apply to Hamas. However, an armed attack involves serious violations of the peace. Minor border skirmishes are common, and if all were considered armed attacks, states could easily exploit them -- as surrounding facts are often murky and unverifiable -- to launch wars of aggression. That is exactly what Israel seems to be currently attempting.
Israel had not suffered an "armed attack" immediately prior to its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. Since firing the first Kassam rocket into Israel in 2002, Hamas and other Palestinian groups have loosed thousands of rockets and mortar shells into Israel, causing about two dozen Israeli deaths and widespread fear. As indiscriminate attacks on civilians, these were war crimes. During roughly the same period, Israeli forces killed about 2,700 Palestinians in Gaza by targeted killings, aerial bombings, in raids, etc., according to the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem.
Keep Reading...
punditman says...
Notably, this appears in the Wall Street Journal. A chink in the armour of mainstream media orthodoxy, perhaps?
Obama on Torture: Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
posted by Ari Melber on 01/12/2009 @ 11:22am
The Obama administration will not focus on prosecuting government officials who practiced illegal torture or war crimes, the president-elect said on Sunday, though he added that prosecutions and independent commission have not been completely ruled out. This was Obama's first major statement on the issue since April; over the past few weeks, Obama's aides have repeatedly ducked questions about what, if anything, the administration will do to enforce laws violated by officials under President Bush. The question topped the list of citizen concerns on Change.gov last week, out of over 70,000 submissions, but Obama aide Robert Gibbs refused to respond, leading ABC's George Stephanopoulos to press the question during an interview on his Sunday show.
"My orientation's going to be to move forward," Obama said. The attorney general has to stay above politics and "uphold the Constitution," Obama added, but his administration will focus on "getting things right in the future as opposed to looking at what we got wrong in the past."
Read on...
The Obama administration will not focus on prosecuting government officials who practiced illegal torture or war crimes, the president-elect said on Sunday, though he added that prosecutions and independent commission have not been completely ruled out. This was Obama's first major statement on the issue since April; over the past few weeks, Obama's aides have repeatedly ducked questions about what, if anything, the administration will do to enforce laws violated by officials under President Bush. The question topped the list of citizen concerns on Change.gov last week, out of over 70,000 submissions, but Obama aide Robert Gibbs refused to respond, leading ABC's George Stephanopoulos to press the question during an interview on his Sunday show.
"My orientation's going to be to move forward," Obama said. The attorney general has to stay above politics and "uphold the Constitution," Obama added, but his administration will focus on "getting things right in the future as opposed to looking at what we got wrong in the past."
Read on...
Peacenik doesn't think ignoring war crimes is focusing on the future. Nor is it staying above politics. Of course the media hardly questioned Bush about torture for eight years. And the media accepted Bush's lame use of semantics to deny that the U.S. used torture. Looks like widespread criminal behavior is just going to get ignored. On Wall St. and in the Whitehouse.
On "Hyperinflation"
Let's put this to rest right here and now.
"Hyperinflation", or even "Serious Inflation" (similar to what we had in the 1970s) is impossible without a means to transmit the rise in prices into wages.
In today's United States that simply cannot happen for two reasons:
Karl Denninger weighs in on the inflation/deflation debate. Peacenik tends to agree that hyperinflation doesn't appear to be imminent. Which means inflating away your's and the contry's debt isn't going to happen soon. Yesterday, after a few beers, Peacenik made the bold prediction that the stock markets would crater this week. How much bad news can investors take? How much crime can investors ignore? Right now the TSX and Dow are both red. What constitues a crater? Peacenik says new lows on both indexes. And more beer for everyone.
1/9/09
War Resister Ordered Out
Immigration officials inform American soldier that she must leave by Jan. 27 or face deportation
by Paola Loriggio
When Kimberley Rivera shipped out to serve in Iraq with the U.S. Army in the fall of 2006, she saw herself rebuilding homes, feeding the hungry and helping children.
Barely three months into her 15-month mission, Rivera, a gate guard in Baghdad, had had enough.
A young mother herself, she says she was haunted by the sight of children crying, forever traumatized by the war.
Read on...
Peacenik is almost afraid to check out the stance of Ignatieff on whether war resisters should be allowed to stay in Canada. This is a litmus test for the Liberals. The Liberals can stop this and future deportations. Will they do it? Peacenik hopes so.
by Paola Loriggio
When Kimberley Rivera shipped out to serve in Iraq with the U.S. Army in the fall of 2006, she saw herself rebuilding homes, feeding the hungry and helping children.
Barely three months into her 15-month mission, Rivera, a gate guard in Baghdad, had had enough.
A young mother herself, she says she was haunted by the sight of children crying, forever traumatized by the war.
Read on...
Peacenik is almost afraid to check out the stance of Ignatieff on whether war resisters should be allowed to stay in Canada. This is a litmus test for the Liberals. The Liberals can stop this and future deportations. Will they do it? Peacenik hopes so.
Robert Fisk: Why do they hate the West so much, we will ask
So once again, Israel has opened the gates of hell to the Palestinians. Forty civilian refugees dead in a United Nations school, three more in another. Not bad for a night's work in Gaza by the army that believes in "purity of arms". But why should we be surprised?
Have we forgotten the 17,500 dead – almost all civilians, most of them children and women – in Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon; the 1,700 Palestinian civilian dead in the Sabra-Chatila massacre; the 1996 Qana massacre of 106 Lebanese civilian refugees, more than half of them children, at a UN base; the massacre of the Marwahin refugees who were ordered from their homes by the Israelis in 2006 then slaughtered by an Israeli helicopter crew; the 1,000 dead of that same 2006 bombardment and Lebanese invasion, almost all of them civilians?
What is amazing is that so many Western leaders, so many presidents and prime ministers and, I fear, so many editors and journalists, bought the old lie; that Israelis take such great care to avoid civilian casualties. "Israel makes every possible effort to avoid civilian casualties," yet another Israeli ambassador said only hours before the Gaza massacre. And every president and prime minister who repeated this mendacity as an excuse to avoid a ceasefire has the blood of last night's butchery on their hands. Had George Bush had the courage to demand an immediate ceasefire 48 hours earlier, those 40 civilians, the old and the women and children, would be alive.
punditman says...
Here are some choice quotes from Peter Kent, Canada's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs (Americas) as he summed up the Israeli strike on the UN school:
Here are some choice quotes from Peter Kent, Canada's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs (Americas) as he summed up the Israeli strike on the UN school:
"Hamas bears the full responsibility for the deepening humanitarian tragedy."
We really don’t have complete details yet, other than the fact that we know that Hamas has made a habit of using civilians and civilian infrastructure as shields for their terrorist activities, and that would seem to be the case again today,” he said in an interview.
In many ways, Hamas behaves as if they are trying to have more of their people killed to make a terrible terrorist point.”
Meanwhile UN officials say they had passed on the school’s GPS co-ordinates to Israel and that it was clearly marked with a UN flag. Furthermore, they insist that only civilians had sought refuge at the school. The UN is demanding an investigation.
Peter Kent the journalist should really do his homework before shooting off his mouth as Peter Kent the junior neo-con politician.
Peter Kent the journalist should really do his homework before shooting off his mouth as Peter Kent the junior neo-con politician.
1/7/09
Israel's Monopoly on Psychological Suffering: The Trauma Vortex
By BELÉN FERNÁNDEZ
Based on the tallies currently being produced by Israeli towns located in the haphazard line of Qassam rocket fire, it appears that the bulk of Israel's civilian casualties in its war on Gaza will once again be shock related.
This was the case in the July 2006 war on Lebanon, during which the Israeli Health Ministry reported that 4,262 wounded Israeli civilians were treated in hospitals; this total was broken down into 33 seriously wounded patients, 68 moderately wounded, and 1,388 lightly wounded, with the remaining 2,773 treated for "shock and anxiety." The UN Commission of Inquiry on Lebanon, meanwhile, cited the Lebanese authorities' claim of 4,409 wounded Lebanese civilians—the only attempt at classification of casualties being a chart listing 56 different "collective massacres" conducted by Israeli forces during the war, with identifying labels such as: "Air raids struck heavily on the funeral procession of the victims of the previous day['s] air raids."
BBC News reported different figures in its August 2006 civilian casualty scorecard for the war, according to which there were 32 seriously wounded Israelis, 44 moderately wounded Israelis, 614 lightly wounded Israelis, 1,985 Israelis treated for shock, and 3,697 wounded Lebanese. Israeli casualties were thus still overwhelmingly shock related, while the Lebanese were still:
- a lump sum.
- not affected by acute stress disorders.
The same trend will most likely hold for Gaza—and not only because it is difficult for hospitals to accommodate people with heightened norepinephrine levels when they cannot accommodate people with missing limbs.
I awoke this past Sunday morning to find that 1 Israeli in Sderot had been lightly wounded, 4 Israelis had been treated for shock, and 23 Palestinians had been killed in Gaza since midnight. After performing a Google search of the terms "Palestinians treated for shock"—which mainly produced articles about Israelis being treated for shock due to Palestinian behavior—I phoned a Palestinian friend in Lebanon in an attempt to determine why enemies of Israel did not enjoy the luxury of psychological conditions. The investigation was conducted in modified English, the idiomatic form on which Hassan and I relied for all of our communications:
ME: Do Arabs ever go to hospital for problem with head?
HASSAN: Arab he don't have head.
This hypothesis would undoubtedly have been endorsed by ex-Israeli premier Golda Meir, who might have used it to back up her argument that Palestinians were not real people. Other possible excuses for the traditional embargo on Palestinian shock included the following:
- The Palestinians were used to having bombs fall on their heads.
- It was the Palestinians' own fault that bombs were falling on their heads.
- Shock had become the exclusive property of Israel's international sympathy campaign, as had the words "hail," "shower," and "barrage."
The Health section of Sunday's online edition of the Jerusalem Post offered some insight into the unique phenomenon of Israeli shock. The main article was entitled "Escaping the trauma vortex," which—although it sounded more like instructions for breaking down the Rafah border crossing—turned out to be the goal of Somatic Experiencing (SE), a self-healing philosophy that had recently been advertised in Sderot.
punditman says...
This is long, but worth reading all the way through. With a sarcastic tone that bites, the author deals with the transparent double standard and racism applied when it comes to the very real psychological suffering amongst both Israelis and Palestinians. Punditman thinks that one sure way of stopping future psychic traumas on both sides is to end the subjugation of the Palestinians. In the jargon of alternative therapy, that requires a holistic approach, in stark contrast to the propaganda model that favours treating symptoms rather than the actual disease. And that disease has a name: Oppression.
Financial Forecast for 2009, Considering Resource Limitations
Posted by Gail the Actuary on January 6, 2009 - 10:10am
In this post, I consider some major issues contributing to our current financial problems, before making a financial forecast for 2009. These are
1. Why so many asset classes are so highly correlated in times of distress. This chart gives my interpretation of part of the problem.
2. Why growth is essential for keeping the current debt-based financial system operating.
3. Where we are now, and the role reduced resources (including peak oil) are likely to play as we go forward.
4. My forecast for 2009.
Read on...
This is a long but worthwhile post. Peacenik particularly enjoyed many of the comments. Lots of back and forth on the inflation/deflation debate. And lots of good advice on what to do to prepare for the future.
Peacenik likes Citizen_Anarchists advice in the comments: "2. Take all the cash except for 2 years worth of payments,and turn it into solid tangible goods. Minimum 1 year food and water. Preferably more. Silver coin, some gold coin and a few other hard metals of value. Buy as much tradeable supply as possible, be it ammo, guns, farm tools, livestock that can be boarded at remote farm, seed ,booze, meds, etc. Find a safe place out of any large city to keep most of it. Friend or family, even locked storage will work.
Buy the most fuel effecient ICE small car you can find. Honda FIT or VW Rabbit TDI. Pay cash for it. Do not buy a Hybrid. Buy a small quality trailer to pull with it and learn how to use it. Buy a few years worth of spare parts, tires, oil and filters. Gas WILL be available on and off for a few years, but buy a few good bikes with spare parts. . Easy to trade as well. Quality counts much more than quantity in all your tangibles." Citizen_Anarchist is not a Jehovah's Witness. He works for FEMA. Peacenik hopes Citizen_Anarchist is over-the-top.
In this post, I consider some major issues contributing to our current financial problems, before making a financial forecast for 2009. These are
1. Why so many asset classes are so highly correlated in times of distress. This chart gives my interpretation of part of the problem.
2. Why growth is essential for keeping the current debt-based financial system operating.
3. Where we are now, and the role reduced resources (including peak oil) are likely to play as we go forward.
4. My forecast for 2009.
Read on...
This is a long but worthwhile post. Peacenik particularly enjoyed many of the comments. Lots of back and forth on the inflation/deflation debate. And lots of good advice on what to do to prepare for the future.
Peacenik likes Citizen_Anarchists advice in the comments: "2. Take all the cash except for 2 years worth of payments,and turn it into solid tangible goods. Minimum 1 year food and water. Preferably more. Silver coin, some gold coin and a few other hard metals of value. Buy as much tradeable supply as possible, be it ammo, guns, farm tools, livestock that can be boarded at remote farm, seed ,booze, meds, etc. Find a safe place out of any large city to keep most of it. Friend or family, even locked storage will work.
Buy the most fuel effecient ICE small car you can find. Honda FIT or VW Rabbit TDI. Pay cash for it. Do not buy a Hybrid. Buy a small quality trailer to pull with it and learn how to use it. Buy a few years worth of spare parts, tires, oil and filters. Gas WILL be available on and off for a few years, but buy a few good bikes with spare parts. . Easy to trade as well. Quality counts much more than quantity in all your tangibles." Citizen_Anarchist is not a Jehovah's Witness. He works for FEMA. Peacenik hopes Citizen_Anarchist is over-the-top.
Music Sales 2008
Music sales are following the trend established over the oast several years: Digital Sales Up, Physical unit sales down, and overall revenue sliding further.
• Total album sales fell to 428.4 million units, a drop of 8.5% (2007 = 500.5 million).
• Physical album sales fell 20% to 362.6 million (from 450.5 million)
• Digital album sales rose 32% percent to 65.8 million units;
• Digital track sales were up 27%, breaking the 1 billion mark for the first time at 1.07 billion.
• Total transactions rose 10.5% to 1.5 billion;
• All Genres saw losses: Classical music dropped 26%; Country fell 24%; Latin was off 21.1%;
• Vinyl album sales also grew with 1.88 million vinyl albums purchased for the year.
Read on...
Peacenik was surprised to see that Neil Diamond is still alive.
• Total album sales fell to 428.4 million units, a drop of 8.5% (2007 = 500.5 million).
• Physical album sales fell 20% to 362.6 million (from 450.5 million)
• Digital album sales rose 32% percent to 65.8 million units;
• Digital track sales were up 27%, breaking the 1 billion mark for the first time at 1.07 billion.
• Total transactions rose 10.5% to 1.5 billion;
• All Genres saw losses: Classical music dropped 26%; Country fell 24%; Latin was off 21.1%;
• Vinyl album sales also grew with 1.88 million vinyl albums purchased for the year.
Read on...
Peacenik was surprised to see that Neil Diamond is still alive.
1/6/09
Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
Posted by Jason Bradford on January 5, 2009 - 9:27am
Why weren’t the trucks running? I’ll give a quick overview of what led up to the Little Death.
Let’s start with the credit market break down in 2008. What followed was a plunge in the volume and reliability of global trade. Without access to the free flow of credit, countries experienced food and fuel shortages. People began rioting.
We saw how developing countries were in profound crisis, but most of us didn’t imagine how those awful scenes would so quickly be in our own neighborhoods too.
Everyone knows the story…Pakistan devolved into anarchy and was unable to keep all of its nuclear weapons secure. Several went missing and the world didn't find out where they went until it was too late.
South-Central Asia and the Middle East were on fire.
Read on...
Peacenik likes reading futuristic scenarios. This one by Jason Bradford highlights what will happen to food supplies in the event of oil shortages. Peacenik's Google Alert for empty grocery shelves continues to alert but not alarm. Is it worth stockpiling food if looters loot? Is it worth stockpiling if everyone has to redistribute their food? Is hoarding bad? When the grocery shelves do empty, where do you want to be? Peacenik thinks Guelph, with a large Amish community nearby, is a good place to be. Peacenik's solar flashlight is fully charged.
Why weren’t the trucks running? I’ll give a quick overview of what led up to the Little Death.
Let’s start with the credit market break down in 2008. What followed was a plunge in the volume and reliability of global trade. Without access to the free flow of credit, countries experienced food and fuel shortages. People began rioting.
We saw how developing countries were in profound crisis, but most of us didn’t imagine how those awful scenes would so quickly be in our own neighborhoods too.
Everyone knows the story…Pakistan devolved into anarchy and was unable to keep all of its nuclear weapons secure. Several went missing and the world didn't find out where they went until it was too late.
South-Central Asia and the Middle East were on fire.
Read on...
Peacenik likes reading futuristic scenarios. This one by Jason Bradford highlights what will happen to food supplies in the event of oil shortages. Peacenik's Google Alert for empty grocery shelves continues to alert but not alarm. Is it worth stockpiling food if looters loot? Is it worth stockpiling if everyone has to redistribute their food? Is hoarding bad? When the grocery shelves do empty, where do you want to be? Peacenik thinks Guelph, with a large Amish community nearby, is a good place to be. Peacenik's solar flashlight is fully charged.
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